Do you think the iranians are financing sunni attacks on shiaa thru syria? Is that what you are saying? Shiaa militias are cruel in excess but it has always seemed to me that theirs was largely a defensive reaction to the intitial sunni atrocities.
Yep... I think that's the case. I think the Iranian Intelligence and Syrian Intelligence have entered into a "quid pro quo" and allied themselves to maintain a certain level of instability in Iraq that prevents its government from organizing a credible democratic foundation.
But they don't want full fledged civil war because that could result in millions of people fleeing Iraq and across their borders, something that they could not economically sustain, and which would potentially destabilize their own societies.
Mike, the bottom line here is that Syria is run by Alawite Arabs, who's religious ideology closely aligns with Shi'ism. And it is this common relationship which, IMO, leads Iran and Syria to have decided upon this relationship.
And what Iran gets out of this is the ability to keep the Shi'a dominated government in Iraq on edge and constantly dependent upon looking to Iran for moral support to fight against the Sunni/salafist militants. Thus, the Iraqi government will bind its common religious ties (shi'ism) to Iran.
But the elephant in the living room is the reality that Iraq is Arab and Iran is Persian. And their animosities and distrust between those two ethnicities transcend religion, unless religiously motivated sectarian violence is sufficient to make the Shi'a Arab's look to Iran for protection.
And what the Syrians get out of this is the ability to maintain sufficient instability in Iraq that the US is unable to turn its attention to that regime.
Were I a Syrian or Iranian intelligence "master", this is exactly the strategy I would be playing.. funding both sides in order to keep Iraq in turmoil, discredit the concept of democracy, and put the US in a position, given its historical "short-sightedness" and desire for the quick victory, where they start perceiving we are in a quagmire.
But despite the violence, there's little evidence that the Iraqi government is ready to collapse. They know that civil war is an abyss they don't want to peer over. They are fighting over resources, or more appropriately, who's got control over the wealth from those resources.
Which, to bring back my idea of distributing a "dividend" to every Iraqi who swears loyalty to the democratically elected government would be a great thing for unifying Iraqis behind a common purpose, and for a common benefit. It makes Iraqis into shareholders of the nation's wealth, rather than mere "plunderers".
Hawk
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