@a good one from Fekete -- trotsky, 11:41:38 08/22/06 Tue
if you don't have the time to read Rothbard's tome on the Great Depression, here's a fairly good summary of the event , explaining the cause-effect vector responsible for that unhappy period from Antal Fekete:
Fekete on the Depression
kitco.com
something to keep in mind when the do-gooders from the government spring into action to 'help the economy' next time around.
Ted Butler on LME Nickel default -- trotsky, 11:26:43 08/22/06 Tue
Butler makes a number of good points in this one:
Butler on the de facto default in the LME's Nickel contract
news.silverseek.com
@micro-caps -- trotsky, 11:20:18 08/22/06 Tue
a few interesting gold sector micro-cap charts:
BLRV
BMGX
LKAI
MMRSF
@LKAI -- trotsky, 11:11:33 08/22/06 Tue
LKAI releases very strong earnings report:
"Royalties on Golden Wonder Production Increase More Than 145% While Pre-Tax Income Rises 178% Due to Strong Gold Prices and Exceptionally High Ore Grade"
LKAI earnings
biz.yahoo.com
@GSS -- trotsky, 11:03:45 08/22/06 Tue
the GSS/HUI ratio looks to have put in a convincing bottom:
relative strength of GSS vs. HUI
stockcharts.com
as previously remarked, the relative strength of GSS to a number other juniors has already bottomed a while ago and entered an uptrend. it seems likely that GSS/HUI is also about to embark on an uptrend, which suggests that this stock should be overweight.
other notable relative strength leaders: KGC (the number one among the producers at the moment), VGZ (number one among the fantasy stocks - i.e. non-producers).
also, the recent relative strength improvement in silver stocks appears to remain well supported, possibly on account of the recent good earnings reports.
@XAU options -- trotsky, 10:52:05 08/22/06 Tue
post-expiration put/call OI in the XAU has jumped by 0.12 to 1.19 (119 puts open for every 100 calls). this indicator continues to buttress the near term bullish case.
@the dollar -- trotsky, 10:30:13 08/22/06 Tue
the dollar looks perky today. i note also that there are fairly large speculative net short positions on the dollar index, and indirectly via long exposure in the euro contract. this suggests to me that the long term support (support going back nearly 3 decades!) at approx. DXY 80 is safe for the moment, barring 'event risk'. the event risk in the dollar is defined by the vast Asian dollar reserves, which the holders are without a doubt uncomfortable with by now. as such, i judge this risk to be quite low. the biggest holders, Japan and China, are quite unlikely to want to rock the boat much.
also, as Grandich remarked, 'everybody knows the dollar is dead, except the dollar'. he wanted to sound a bearish note, but it came out inadvertently bullish sounding, since what it is really saying is 'everybody's bearish on it, but it refuses to break down anyway'.
this of course only applies to the relatonship between the dollar and other fiat currencies - it leaves the possibility of a further devaluation against gold wide open.
as far as i know the only analyst out there holding to this contrarian opinion is Bob Hoye - he thinks both gold and the dollar are set to rise in the medium term. it sounds unlikely, but intermarket relationships are not sacred cows. they frequently break down in fact, or are subject to large lead/lag periods. |
