Well, hello everyone! Chris, I see you are alive and well. I see this thread is starting to come alive again.
Here is my peek at PTIS:
Momentum has been starting to weaken with a negative divergence with respect to the price. An upward wedge is being formed with volume validating. However, recently, there has been some interesting groups of volume spikes rising above the downtrending volume which are validating upward movement of the stock. This is a little late into the upward wedge.
I suspect the stock will continue in its upward wedge pattern. The stock is now bouncing off of the lower trendline o this wedge. The gap Monday is proving to be a point of resistance for this stock. I think the stock is preparing for a cycle up to at least 9.5 to 10. The stock has moved up in value by 100% on this latest uptrend. It may be due for a correction which it may see at the completion of this upward wedge. But then there was that recent corection from about 8 3/4 to 6 1/2 which is about 25%.
The volume over the next couple days as the stock moves up toward 10 will be worth noting. This may actually lead to an upside breakout out of the wedge pattern given what appears to be a developing upward volume trend. However, it is a little premature to make this call.
The stock does have some built up momentum. So far, I have not seen any negative divergences by the Stoch and RSI. I do not see the MACD(8, 17, 9) below the 0 line. Mine is at 0.4 and downsloping which may limit the initial upside move of the stock.
I have been attempting to develop a system that will work with trading on breakouts. The idea here is to determine when to get off of a steeply sloping price pattern from a strong breakout of the stock. I am finding the use of shorter length MACDs and the use of the StochRSIs to be helpful here, besides the MAs as general trend indicators. Also the Bollinger Bands are proving to be helpful here. So far on paper, I have been able to predict exactly when ADBE halted from its breakout. I am checking out the upward spike of VVUS right now. Fun stuff.
I notice that volitile stock that has frequent breakouts and upward spikes behaves differently with respect to the shorter term MACD and StochRSI indicators that stock that is in a an uptrend with relativey low volitility. This makes sense since these type of indicators will be more sensative to short movements and cycles of the stock.
By the way, I think the market will contunue its attempt to break through 8035 and has a good chance of succeeding in the near future. The investor sentiment appears to be changing for the better right now. But there are still alot of nervous investors out there and quick profit taking. Also it looks like the investor is starting to move back into the blue chips. Mutual funds are hesitant in moving their money into the small caps becuase they currently are simply too volitile. So I think when the market starts another bull upleg, most of the action will be in some select blue chips and also midcap stocks. However, I do see more investor involvement in the small caps this time around.
Any comments?
Bob Graham |
