Sepracor-Looks very promising Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: tuck who wrote (9653)	8/23/2006 6:25:41 AM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) of 10280

I have not done anything here recently - got burned on too many put plays in late spring. I am not loving the vols on SEPR these days and worry about selling puts given lack of a catalyst near term. Lunesta looks like it has reached peak at 120K per week - probably just under $600 MM annually and the Xopenex MDI and nebulizer can probably eventually get to $700-800 MM. I do think management will raise the MDI piece of estimates but nebulizer remains at risk. Assuming arformoterol can do $200 MM (aggressive) and you have peak sales at about $1.6 B maybe moving toward $2 B if Lunesta can get going again (with some royalties added in to get to this midpoint level). I imagine steady-state profits will be circa $3 per share moving toward $5 if L gets going again. So if you do not believe in L and worry about Xopenex, then SEPR trades at 15x steady state EPS. Not exactly cheap. Jon

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