Brokers: biz.yahoo.com
Check. Got AMTD, SCHW, MER already. GS looks ripe. Anybody understand LM?
EEM: I really like the emerging markets short. Got EWW, EWY, EWZ (the ones I could get a borrow on). Couldn't borrow EEM (EDIT: just got the borrow.)
Retailers: I like as well, but I'm not very good at picking them, and I don't like sector holders like RTH that are heavily concentrated like that unless I specifically want the overweighted ones. I have a poor feel for how vulnerable the stocks are in this downturn. Do they get cut in half? If so, many are already there. Do they get decimated? I just don't know enough about them.
Also, I'm more interested in the consumer discretionary, and some of those sell more essentials. I'd rather pick individuals. In RTH, LOW looks great, and I have FD and BBY (and CC). Wouldn't do WAG or CVS. In XLY, got SBUX, and I do like HD short. I also have URBN, FDO, JNY, AMZN, and JWN.
Tech: I actually have a lot of semiconductor equipment and semiconductor manufacturers. The equipments are a favorite of mine because they are a deep cyclical industry that somehow got confused with a growth industry by the financial community. Hence, they trade for 20x peak cycle earnings, when they should trade for a far lower multiple of peak earnings. It's funny, because in 1990 I understood the secular growth that lay ahead, and they were treated like deep cyclicals based on their history. Now, the secular growth is done, and they're still being valued based on that history. I know that business well, and I know that their margins and the margins of the commodity manufacturers will go to zero when the economy weakens. Heavily capital intensive business = deeply cyclical profitability confused with conventional growth stocks by the Street.
Financials: I'm assuming this: "Financials makes no sense now"
was a typo based on context. I've got CFC and MTG, and I'm looking at ACF, COF, BKUNA, WFC, LEND, NEW, and NFI. Any ideas how low FMT can go? (Reaper's favorite number comes to mind...)
IYR: I tend not to short anything without at least a conceivable downtrend in place. No downtrend: stockcharts.com
SPY, IWM: I don't like overall index positions, so I won't be short SPY or IWM. Success there comes down to guessing the market direction. While I think I know what that will be, my long-term success has been 90% determined by my ability to choose sectors that will outperform - or underperform as the case may be. I'd be more inclined to short sector trackers with equal amounts of SPY on the long side as a hedge.
Curious to hear thoughts on my ideas, and additional suggestions. Might we accumulate in the thread header the suggested sectors and some names within the sectors? Are you too busy for that russ? Or would you prefer to gather them on your xanga site?
BC |
