Short Selling, Dark Side, Bubble Busting Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Short Selling, Dark Side, Bubble Busting Laboratory

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To: NOW who wrote (317)	8/23/2006 4:04:05 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) of 361

Didn't mean it to be a call. However, I am considering something that I haven't thought of doing in a very long time, though: buying some short-term lotto ticket puts. I've found over the years that while I'm usually right about inefficiencies in market pricing of securities, my ability to nail the timing has been very poor indeed. However, right now the setup is pretty much perfect. Housing stocks topped out over a year ago, the news flow is terrible from there, and the timing on the Nasdaq and S&P highs is pretty much exactly what you'd expect for a recession starting right around now. The bait of the Fed pause is the biggest load of horse manure around, as the Fed pause is probably the single best economic and stock market decline indicator in existence. And we've got some impulsive looking declines followed by corrective looking bounces all over the place. 38%, 3-wave bounce in NDX for one. Will I do it? Don't know if I've got the guts - or if I can quiet that voice in my head that said I would never purchase options ever again. BC

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