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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology

STX 278.47

+1.0%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: duedilly who wrote (7458)	8/24/2006 10:34:01 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) of 7841

Using DRAM Exchange’s average spot price on 8/24/06 for NAND flash of $12.10/Gbit, we estimate that the current price for an 8GB NAND Flash chip is roughly $97. This is a 14% premium to the list price of a 12GB 1” Cornice drive at $85 which has 50% more storage capacity. Frankly, that's absurd. Even if spot prices/Gbit on 8/24 are a good indicator of what an 8GB NAND chip would cost (it isn't, but nevermind that little detail), the cost of NAND is being lowered all the time. If the cost is $97 today, it will be half that in 6 months. That doesn't mean the HDs will disappear--they won't. Indeed, I own some Seagate stock, in addition to Sandisk. But their market is much higher end than 8GB. Much much higher.

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