Incumbent on the Brink
Can Sen. Santorum survive?
BY JASON L. RILEY
Thursday, August 24, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT
JANESVILLE, Pa.--Until recently, Bob Casey Jr.'s strategy for unseating Republican Sen. Rick Santorum had been working so well that Mr. Casey could behave like the incumbent.
Taking advantage of a double-digit lead in the polls, this son of a popular former two-term governor was coasting toward November on the heralded family name. He could remain mum or studiously vague about his actual positions. He could refuse to debate. And he could hide behind handlers who carefully stage-managed his appearances (before friendly audiences) and even more carefully shielded him from media outlets (like this one). It was a smart strategy for Mr. Casey, who is an underwhelming campaigner. But its viability is now being tested.
The latest polls show the race tightening. An independent Quinnipiac University survey released on Aug. 15 had Mr. Casey ahead 48% to 42% among likely voters. The same poll showed him with a 52% to 34% lead in late June. A further concern for the challenger is that his negatives among likely voters have risen as he's allowed the senator to define him.
Which might explain why Mr. Casey has begun to emerge from his shell. This week the Casey camp finally agreed to multiple formal debates. The candidates also have scheduled a joint "Meet the Press" appearance on Sept. 3. And on a warm, sunny day last week in Clearfield County, the Casey campaign bus stopped by an annual picnic in this tiny central Pennsylvania town, where a reporter was denied an interview but invited to watch Mr. Casey glad-hand supporters and deliver some brief remarks. The candidate, who currently serves as state treasurer, was introduced to the audience by Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell.
Mr. Rendell will win re-election easily over his Republican opponent this fall, the pro football great, Lynn Swann. And Mr. Casey is hoping the governor has coattails, which could help him in the critical southeast part of the state, where Mr. Rendell, a past mayor of Philadelphia, is most popular. But the governor is also a reminder of Mr. Casey's ability to implode, his political pedigree notwithstanding. In 2002, he challenged Mr. Rendell in the gubernatorial primary. After holding a 20-point lead in that race, Mr. Casey eventually lost by 14 points. Mr. Santorum might need a repeat performance from his opponent if he hopes to keep his seat.
Six points is a sizable deficit for the incumbent to close inside of three months, though the senator certainly has the money, savvy and party unity to give it a go. Mr. Santorum, who's held the seat since 1994, has never won more than 52% of the vote in a Senate race, and he's sailing into what appears to be a strong anti-incumbent headwind this year. Mr. Casey has done an effective job of making the race a referendum on Mr. Santorum, whose vocal social conservatism--he opposes abortion, gay marriage and embryonic stem cell research--has made him a whipping boy of the local and national liberal press.
The senator is also closely associated with an unpopular president fighting an unpopular war. The Casey campaign itself has bobbed and weaved on Iraq so far, but the candidate's gratuitous endorsement this week of Democrat Ned Lamont, the one-issue antiwar victor in this month's Connecticut senate primary, might help clarify for Pennsylvanians where Mr. Casey stands in the war on terror.
Mr. Santorum has not abandoned his principles, nor his support for the U.S. effort in Iraq. At a town hall meeting in suburban Philadelphia on Sunday, he said that "this war is as serious a war as we have ever fought, and we have the politics of today trying to blow this off as some sort of creation of a bunch of people in the White House."
In search of something that can legitimately separate him from President Bush, he's done what many fellow Republican incumbents have done and taken a hard line on immigration. But the fact that Mr. Bush's approval ratings currently are as bad or worse in Pennsylvania as they are nationally could override everything else and ultimately spell defeat for the senator.
Moreover, Mr. Santorum shares some of the blame for his current predicament. In 2004, he backed liberal Republican Sen. Arlen Specter for re-election over the conservative challenger Pat Toomey. Mr. Santorum was eyeing the majority leader post and thought his support for the incumbent would help him lure moderates votes in the GOP caucus. Two years later, however, his embrace of Mr. Specter has probably dampened enthusiasm among Mr. Santorum's conservative base, where turnout is a concern. Indeed, one of the questions Mr. Santorum faced at the town hall meeting was a sarcastic "What's it like working with Sen. Specter?"
Another arguable misstep was publishing a controversial book last year when he was sizing up a White House run. Mr. Santorum is a conservative Catholic, and his biggest political liability may be the perception that he's some kind of theocrat. Releasing a manifesto on how government can be used to propagate Christian moral values has only reinforced that negative image. And it's unlikely to help him with moderate Republican voters in those all-important collar counties of Philadelphia come November.
Among the handful of Upper Chamber Republicans facing difficult races this year, however, a Rick Santorum loss easily would be the most damaging to political conservatives. Mr. Santorum, the No. 3 man in the Senate, is much more than a reliable vote for lower taxes and a strong national defense. He's also been a true reformer who's often willing to champion unpopular causes. Sen. Santorum floor managed the welfare-reform bill that turned 10-years-old this week. He's backed medical savings accounts and pushed for Social Security personal retirement accounts long before George W. Bush. That takes chutzpah for a senator from a state with a higher percentage of senior citizens than anywhere but Florida.
Which is to say that losing the Senate would be bad enough for the GOP, but losing a Sen. Santorum along the way would add insult to injury.
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