The Gilder Friday Letter 08/25/06
[unfiltered, uncut, unedited]
from: gilder.com Issue 261.0 / August 25, 2006
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HEADLINES:
- The Week / Ascending Into Life-After-Television
- Friday Feature / Would ?Net Neutrality? Screw Up IPTV?
- Friday Blogger Bonus / Friendly Debate with Supply-Side Titan
- Readings /
The Week / Ascending Into Life-After-Television
Excerpted from the August 2006 issue of the Gilder Technology Report.
GTR Senior Technology Analyst Charlie Burger, with George Gilder: Ascending into life-after-television with its superior liquid crystal displays (LCDs), exotic green lasers, last-mile fiber webs and cable triplays is Corning (GLW). With virtually 100 percent of the world still trapped in a copper cage, with growing demand for movie-and-game-ready mobile displays, and with high-definition video and flat-panel televisions just beginning long, global market runs, Corning?s future glitters like Steuben glass.
Driven by displays that range from cell phones to notebook computers and desktop monitors to televisions, global demand for LCD glass is expected to swell from 800 million square feet last year to 1,400 million square feet in 2007, with Corning hoping to outgrow the total market. Most notable is the anticipated ascent of LCD television from 5 percent in 2004 and 11 percent in 2005 to 20 percent this year and 30 percent next with average screen size reaching 27 inches.
At which point we?ll have only just begun. Lagging Japan?s expected 77 percent penetration of the TV market will be western Europe?s 49 percent, North America?s 36 percent, and the rest of world?s 10 percent. Creating only a small portion of today?s demand, the Chinese LCD market alone is expected to equal North America?s by 2009. For Corning, LCD glass could well repeat the 30-plus year run of cathode ray tubes (CRTs).
But what?s that rumble from Wall Street? It?s the sound of investors ignoring emerging paradigms and stampeding away from Corning.
Are these false alarms? Should you run with the herd or is the time to board the great glass boat? Read the complete August issue of the Gilder Technology Report by logging in with your subscriber at gildertech.com.
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Don?t miss:
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- MICHAEL MILKEN, Chairman, Milken Institute; Chairman, FasterCures
- ROBERT MUNDELL, Nobel Laureate & International Economist
- JUSTIN RATTNER, Chief Technology Officer, Intel
- JOHN RUTLEDGE, Global Economist, Rutledge Capital
- AND dozens of today?s top high-tech thought and business leaders
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Friday Feature / Assuring Quality of Experience for IPTV
Would ?Net Neutrality? Screw Up IPTV?:
The year 2006 marks a time in which the IP television (IPTV) market is moving into the critical second phase of large-scale commercial deployments across many regions. This may vary between carriers and geographies, but as a whole, service assurance and quality of experience
(QOE) largely define this evolution. Each phase is tightly coupled with ongoing underlying technology evolution, content acquisition, and scaling the overall number of IP video subscribers.
? Phase I: Prove technical viability of technology, architecture, and basic service delivery to match existing cable and satellite TV service offerings.
? Phase II: Deliver service assurance and QOE guarantees, increase personalization, and deliver any service, any time, in an effort to ensure and grow take rate.
? Phase III: Increase service differentiation and integration to achieve blended services and interactive TV on a large scale.
Assuring QOE for IPTV is rapidly becoming a top priority among vendors and service providers as the IPTV market evolves into Phase II, in which services are commercially deployed on a meaningful scale. IPTV is about the television business, and offering a differentiating and compelling value proposition is a key to success. In order for service providers to achieve target video take rates, the QOE of IPTV must meet and exceed the services cable and satellite providers are currently providing. Large and small service providers are either planning for or putting the technology in place to meet the requirements surrounding service assurance and QOE.
There are many factors influencing the challenge of achieving a high QOE in IPTV deployments.
The mix of broadcast TV versus video on demand (VOD), network-based personal video recorder
(nPVR), and other unicast video services is relatively unpredictable, which affects the ratio of multicast and unicast network traffic, and ultimately the design of the network architecture. The addition of high-definition (HD) content to the network drives greater bandwidth requirements and the need to assure the continuous availability of that bandwidth for the purpose of achieving flawless QOE. VOD usage patterns, as well as the proliferation of set-top boxes (STBs) and other appliances in the home, will dictate the optimal location of content placement in the network, which also has an effect on traffic patterns and bandwidth needs.
These issues should and will be transparent to the subscriber, who is simply expecting an always-on service offering. To that end, providing such QOE isn't necessarily simple, but it's a critical factor for the success of IPTV. It also is achievable with the right technology and network architecture as a foundation.
Intelligent network design, with an emphasis on avoiding congestion, is essential to address QOE issues before they arise. Peak service concurrency rates, based on a number of assumptions and real-world scenarios, will impact the network differently in the first mile than in the second, third, or fourth (e.g. as part of a congestion-avoidance and admission-control strategy). Blindly throwing bandwidth at the problem to overprovision the network is prohibitively expensive, so telecom equipment providers are proposing new and smarter means to right-size network capacity by gaining a better understanding of traffic patterns and usage trends.
The second phase of the IPTV market will drive new network requirements that must be addressed by industry-leading vendors in next-generation equipment ?
Read the complete Heavy Reading white paper:
downloads.lightreading.com
NOTE: This paper examines the critical challenges, required technology and features, and optimized network architecture necessary to achieve these goals.
A N N O U N C I N G : The Gildertech Blog
Logon to blog.gildertech.com to see what?s new.
Friday Blogger Bonus / Friendly Debate with Supply-Side Titan
Bret Swanson (8/24/06): This morning Dr. Arthur Laffer continues his break with most of the other classical/supply-side economists. Dr. Laffer says inflation is nowhere in sight and the Fed is doing a "stellar" job. We can all agree with Dr. Laffer that growth does not cause inflation, the Philips Curve is (or should be) dead, and that economic growth today is stronger than most observers believe. Dr. Laffer is a national hero, who helped launch the U.S. to world economic leadership and, maybe more importantly, exported his low-tax ideas to a world in desperate need of capitalism. We are all benefiting from this global transformation that he and his mentor Robert Mundell envisioned. We continue to be somewhat flummoxed, however, over Dr. Laffer's views on monetary policy, which seem to contradict many of his earlier teachings.
Check Out Discovery Institute?s Disco-Tech Blog:
disco-tech.org
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and just 60% for the S&P 500.
When many investors were seeing their portfolios beaten down by tech stocks, George Gilder continued to point subscribers to the right tech companies at the right time, continuing the Gilder Technology Report's outstanding performance.
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Readings /
Are the Terrorists Winning?
blogs.forbes.com
Your Digital Wallet
technologyreview.com
Subsidy Economics 101
cato.org
Safer Lithium-Ion Batteries
technologyreview.com
Samsung Guns For Apple?s iPod
redherring.com
Cisco Grabs Arroyo For $92Million
redherring.com
How To Talk Like An Iraqi
technologyreview.com
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