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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (55407)8/27/2006 1:47:19 PM
From: YanivBA  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
bears may not get a good deal as they did back in 2000-2003 decline

You are assuming that all the money invested long via hedge fund stays put even if the market declines and aggregate hedge funds returns keep showing that all they were really doing is charging alpha for the delivery of beta.

IMO while the 2000-2003 market gave birth to the hedge fund mania as market neutral became all the hype it is precisely the disinfatuation with the hedge fund concept that is a perquisite for the second leg down.

Hedge fund outflows will flash all the hidden Ponzi schemes out there, crate a real scare, collapse the CDS and CDO market, dump all the debt in the system right back at the doorstep of the financials and, finally, teach the masses a lesson that the only way to profit in a down market is to sell short.

If all that happens I suspect bears are in for a very good ride (and if it doesn't happen … well for me that is simply not really a bear market)

YanivBA.
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