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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Ichy Smith who wrote (200077)8/29/2006 2:18:18 PM
From: jttmab  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
I can prove my thesis simply by doing nothing.

Not really. Even if there is a major event that occurs during the time frame of Oct-Aug, it doesn't "prove" your thesis. A three point data sample of a statistical correlation doesn't have a high confidence level. You need somewhere around 1,000 data points to have a confidence level greater than 95%. And even then a strong statistical correlation doesn't prove a causal relationship.

Of course, the other way to approach the problem is to assume that there will be another 10,000 terrorist attacks in the one year period of Oct 2008 thru Sept 2009. Surely out of 10,000 terrorist attacks you can find something to "prove" you're right.

jttmab
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