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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: dpl who wrote (69229)9/1/2006 11:59:09 AM
From: benwood  Read Replies (4) of 110194
 
I've a friend in Phoenix who was in a buying panic 18 months ago, as she put it, because there was almost nothing for sale. Clearly this bears that out:
Mar 03 27768 6197 4.480878
Mar 04 23033 8314 2.770387
Mar 05 2962 9199 0.321992

Sales appeared to have been about 30-50% higher than normal for a couple years, and which correlates well with the realtor association figures that said 34% of home sales in '04 were either 2nd/3rd+ homes or investment homes. In looking at the trends, it really looks like sales took off, then the reaction to the impulse (delayed) is that inventory started to appear, then accelerate.

Mar 06 36239 6830 5.305857
Apr 06 38206 6176 6.186205
May 06 41797 6870 6.083988
Jun 06 50974 5460 9.335897

Sales, meanwhile, are dropping back to their recent norms from '02. And with the delayed reaction to bring more homes on line plus investors desperately seeking a greater fool, the inventory is now impulsing skyward. But alas, the 34% investment/multi-home purchasers have vanished. That's one whopping decrease in buyers at the margin. Chances are, it has decreased further than that (or soon will) as sentiment shifts -- those who'd thought of moving up are now priced out of the market, and legions of others will take a more aggressive bargain hunting attitude.
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