"They are confused as to why production continues to fall despite new drilling." But we aren't,hee hee.
theherald.co.uk
Re: "The North Sea Conundrum
Most of us have seen this article, in which the Royal Bank of Scotland, described the North Sea production situation as a "Conundrum." They are confused as to why production continues to fall despite new drilling.
Of course, anyone who has visited this website and reviewed the Hubbert Linearization (HL) method is not confused.
The Lower 48 and the North Sea could not be more different. The Lower 48 peaked in 1970. It's primarily onshore, some big fields and a lot of small fields. Jump forward to 1999, when the North Sea peaked. The North Sea is offshore, primarily big fields (because of the economics). The North Sea operators also had much better technology.
The common connection? Both regions peaked at about 50% of Qt. The "Y" P/Q intercept for the North Sea suggested a more rapid decline rate, and that is precisely what the EIA crude + condensate production has shown, now down 30% (in June) versus the 1999 peak.
Khebab and I comapred the Lower 48 to the world and Texas to Saudi Arabia. Based on the HL method, the world and Saudi Arabia, in 2005, were where the Lower 48 and Texas were at when the peaked. We basically confirmed Dr. Deffeyes' data, and we predicted that Saudi Arabia was on the verge of a production decline.
I have gotten some grief over using Texas as a model for Saudi Arabia, given that most of the Saudi's production comes from a few large fields. Well, isn't that also true of the North Sea versus the Lower 48? And didn't both of those regions peak at 50% of Qt?
Texas peaked later than the Lower 48, as a percentage of Qt, probably because of Texas' status as a swing producer. The same thing is true of Saudi Arabia versus the world. However, Saudi Arabia is extremely exposed to the apparent decline from its biggest field. Ghawar accounted for more than half of Saudi production (in 2005), while the East Texas Field accounted for only about 7% of Texas production (in 1972).
But the bottom line is that world and Saudi production have both been down since December--while oil prices have been trading in a price range that is 15% to 30% higher than December.
IMO, this isn't a drill; I think that it is the real thing.
"Cut thy spending and get thee to the non-discretionary side of the economy."
westexas on Saturday September 02, 2006 at 9:35 AM EST
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