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Gold/Mining/Energy : PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End?
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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (1158)9/2/2006 2:57:33 PM
From: Wharf Rat   of 1183
 
I've done a (literal) back of the envelope calcuation on the actual decline in net oil exports by the top 10 net oil exporters (based on 2004 EIA list of exporters).
I had to estimate consumption, based on the total liquds number in the 2004 EIA list, and then guess the consumption increase (5% per year?). I just decided to use the total liquids consumption in 2004 as the current crude + condensate consumption.

Through June, it looks like the estimated net exports by the top 10 are falling at an annual rate of 9.2%. If we exclude Russia's production and consumtion, net exports from the other nine are falling at an annual rate of about 9.6%. Russia's total production is barely down since December, while the production by the other nine are falling at an annual rate of 7.4% through June (6% including Russia).

I am deeply suspicious of Russia's recent production numbers. Why do you think that I am so suspicious of their recent (May/June) production numbers? Anyone? Anyone?

In any case, this does fit my estimate that net exports by the top 10 net exporters are falling three to four times faster than world oil production is falling.
westexas on Saturday September 02, 2006 at 1:12 PM EST
theoildrum.com
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