For those of you that got tired of waitng for the 71MB file to download. Companion table for the Barron's cover story minus the pictures of the strategist....
Liz Ann Sonders
Charles Schwab
S&P 500 Year End: 1200** 12 Months: 1180**
10-yr Treasury Yield: 5.00% Fed-Funds Rate: 5.25%
S&P 500 Operating Profits ’06E: N.A. ’07E: N.A.
Favorite Sectors: Health Care, consumer staples, technology
“The global rate picture is ugly. The
consumer is already under pressure
from higher rates and oil prices, and
the bull market’s long in the tooth.”
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Michael Ryan
UBS
S&P 500 Year End: 1350 12 Months: 1400
10-yr Treasury Yield: 4.90% Fed-Funds Rate: 5.25%
S&P 500 Operating Profits ’06E: $86.00 ’07E: $90.00
Favorite Sectors: Health Care, consumer staples, financials
“A slowdown in earnings growth is a
concern, but valuations are fair, not
stretched. You typically don’t see bear
markets starting at these valuations.”
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Jason Trennert
Strategas Research Partners
S&P 500 Year End: 1400 12 Months: 1480
10-yr Treasury Yield: 4.50% Fed-Funds Rate: 5.25%
S&P 500 Operating Profits ’06E: $84.00 ’07E: $90.00
Favorite Sectors: Health Care, technology
“An economic slowdown is good for
stocks to the extent it gets the Fed
out of the way, and lets the market
catch up to corporate profit levels.”
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François Trahan
Bear Stearns
S&P 500 Year End: 1200 12 Months: 1450***
10-yr Treasury Yield: 4.50% Fed-Funds Rate: 5.25%
S&P 500 Operating Profits ’06E: $83.00 ’07E: $88.00
Favorite Sectors: Health Care, consumer staples, utilities
“Counter-cyclical leadership implies an
economy losing steam. A real equities
recovery can’t occur until the market
fully prices in the anticipated slowdown.”
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Tom McManus
Banc of America Securities
S&P 500 Year End: 1300 12 Months: 1335
10-yr Treasury Yield: 5.50% Fed-Funds Rate: 5.75%
S&P 500 Operating Profits ’06E: $81.00 ’07E: $ 87.00
Favorite Sectors: Health Care, consumer staples
“Reported inflation figures may remain
stubbornly high even as the real U.S.
economy slows in 2H06 and 2007,
keeping the Fed ‘in the game’ longer.”
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Ed Keon
Prudential Equity Group
S&P 500 Year End: 1410 12 Months: N.A.
10-yr Treasury Yield: 5.00% Fed-Funds Rate: 5.25%
S&P 500 Operating Profits ’06E: $87.00 ’07E: $94.00
Favorite Sectors: Health Care, financials, telecom, energy
“Valuations are about average,
despite sharply lower transaction
costs and taxes that suggest
valuations should be sharply higher.”
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Henry McVey
Morgan Stanley
S&P 500 Year End: 1350 12 Months: N.A.
10-yr Treasury Yield: 5.15% Fed-Funds Rate: 5.25%
S&P 500 Operating Profits ’06E: $85.00 ’06E: $89.00
Favorite Sectors: Health Care, brokers and insurance, drug retailers
“A bottoming of earnings revisions will
mark an important turning point; this
could occur as soon as September.
Inflation should moderate in 2H06.”
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Tobias Levkovich
Citigroup
S&P 500 Year End: 1400 12 Months: N.A.
10-yr Treasury Yield: 4.90% Fed-Funds Rate: 5.25%
S&P 500 Operating Profits ’06E: $88 .00 ’07E: $ 94.50
Favorite Sectors*: Health Care, info tech, diversified fin’ls, consumer discr
“Since late 2001, S&P 500 operating
EPS have risen 111%, while shares
have risen 16%. Investors have
anticipated slower earnings growth.”
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Abby Joseph Cohen
Goldman Sachs
S&P 500 Year End: 1400 12 Months: 1440
10-yr Treasury Yield: 4.80% Fed-Funds Rate: 5.25%
S&P 500 Operating Profits ’06E: $81.00 ’07E: $86.00
Favorite Sectors: Technology, industrials, energy
“Stocks should outperform bonds
in most countries. Equity selection
should, in general, favor economic
growth and beta rather than yield.”
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Larry Adam
Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Year End: 1340 12 Months: 1415
10-yr Treasury Yield: 4.75% Fed-Funds Rate: 5.25%
S&P 500 Operating Profits ’06E: $87.15 ’07E: $96.00
Favorite Sectors: Health Care, financials, energy
“Drugmakers’ earnings momentum,
and the demographics of an aging
population, all favor health care.
Biotech is still a true growth story.”
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Abhijit Chakrabortti
J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Year End: 1190 12 Months: N.A
10-yr Treasury Yield: 5.40% Fed-Funds Rate: 5.50%
S&P 500 Operating Profits ’06E: $82.00 ’07E: N.A.
Favorite Sectors: Telecom services, consumer staples, energy, health care
“The S&P 500 dividend yield of 2%
is still below the long-term average
of 3.5%, and investors aren’t
compensated enough for their risk.”
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Richard Bernstein
Merrill Lynch
S&P 500 Year End: 1260 12 Months: 1330
10-yr Treasury Yield: 4.70% Fed-Funds Rate: 5.25%
S&P 500 Operating Profits ’06E: $84.50 ’07E: $86.00
Favorite Sectors: Telecom, industrials, consumer staples
“There is no asset class today that
is starved for capital, and
uncertainty about nominal growth
could dampen returns even more.”
*Picks are for large-caps only ** Strategist’s estimate, not firm’s ***Year-end 2007 target |
