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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 53.85

-4.5%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Biomaven who wrote (21138)	9/4/2006 1:42:12 AM
From: Doc Bones	Read Replies (1) of 52153

After the bubble burst, the Nasdaq finally made a recovery in 2003, bouncing back over 2000. Since that time, it's basically done nothing. Option sellers have made a lot of money, and have had to accept lower and lower premiums. I think this may be a good time to place some longer-term bets on indices, as there is potential volatility around the question of the housing bubble - the "hard or soft landing." To my mind that question is still up in the air. I can see lots of reasons why the housing bubble should burst, and I think they've been very irresponsible pushing interest-only loans and negative amortization, etc. But so far prices don't seem to have fallen hard, mortgage interest rates have actually fallen recently [along with the 10-year bond], and housing is a sacred cow that the government puts a lot of effort into protecting. I think the market hasn't made it's mind up yet either. I'll look at some year long S&P options as the Barrons' article recommended, probably slanted to the put side. Doc

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