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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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From: allevett9/5/2006 2:00:50 PM
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From Raymond James

Over the past several weeks, the oil bears have been quietly emerging from out of the woodwork like
cockroaches when the lights are turned off. They have been feeding off the fear that rising U.S. petroleum
inventories indicate a global oil problem. While there is no question that U.S. petroleum inventories have
been on the rise, we believe that focusing solely on absolute U.S. oil inventories paints an inaccurate
depiction of the global oil situation. An analysis using only total U.S. oil inventories ignores both global oil
demand growth as well as petroleum inventory levels in the rest of the world. When we broaden our oil
inventory analysis, there are two data points that paint a decidedly more bullish picture for future oil prices:
1) While U.S. oil inventories have risen on an absolute basis, they remain below 10-year highs and at
the lower half of the 10-year range on a “days of supply” basis.
2) Most of the recent inventory builds have occurred in the U.S. market, as opposed to the rest of the
world. Energy Agency (IEA) data for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) countries, suggest that absolute global oil inventories are closer to the ten-year
average and global “days of supply” of oil are at the low end of the 10-year range.
Based on these points, we conclude that the recent U.S. oil inventory builds do not support a bearish
stance on global oil prices.
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