By Chris Cillizza | September 6, 2006; 4:15 PM ET
Parsing the Polls: Voters Mad as Hell
Turnout will be the most important factor of the upcoming election. Midterms are typically low turnout affairs with only the most dedicated partisans casting their ballots. To date, intensity among Democrats has far outweighed that of their GOP counterparts. Republicans are hoping that a focus on terrorism will energize their base, thereby neutralizing the Democratic fervor.
A new poll conducted for CNN by the Opinion Research Corporation shows that voters are unhappy and itching for a change, although it also indicates that both Democrats and Republicans are more enthusiastic about this election than previous ones -- a positive sign for the GOP.
Let's Parse the Polls.
The most intriguing question in the CNN survey asked: "Would you say you are generally content with the way things are going in the country today, or is there something you would say you are angry about?"
More than three-quarters (76 percent) of the sample (1,004 adults) said they were "angry about something," while 21 percent said they were "generally content." Three percent had no opinion. Contrast that with a similar poll conducted for CNN in early February that showed 59 percent of the sample was angry compared to 32 percent who were content and nine percent who had no opinion.
Asked how things are going in the country, 54 percent said badly, while 46 percent said well. Looking closer, however, there is a considerable intensity gap in those two views. Twenty five percent said things were going "very badly," while just nine percent said things were going "very well."
Other recent surveys back up this sense that America has gone off the rails. In a Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll (in the field Aug. 25-27), 28 percent of the 801 registered voters tested said America was heading in the right direction, while 64 percent said it was on the wrong track. A Newsweek survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research (Aug. 24-25 of 1,002 adults) produced a similar result. Twenty eight percent said they were satisfied with "the way things are going in the United States," while 65 percent said they were dissatisfied.
The CNN poll also asked voters to rate the job Congressional Republicans and Democrats were doing. Just 31 percent said they approved of the way Republican Members of Congress were handling their duties, while 64 percent said they disapproved. The numbers weren't markedly better for Congressional Democrats with 57 percent disapproving of their performance and 35 percent approving.
Again, this result is backed up by oodles of other survey data. A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll in the field late last month showed a paltry 21 percent approving of the job Congress is doing, while 61 percent disapproved. The Cook Report/RT Strategies survey showed it 31 percent approve/58 percent disapprove.
The last poll to ask voters to rate the jobs being done by Republicans and Democrats in Congress was conducted in late June by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg. The results were roughly equivalent to the CNN survey; the approve/disapprove for Republicans was 31 percent/42 percent and 34/36 for Democrats.
While the above results would seem to indicate that voters will cast a pox on incumbents in both parties this fall, it may not be that simple.
The reality is that Republicans control all the levers of power in the government, a fact that Democrats will make sure voters are well aware of before Nov. 7. Therefore, anti-incumbent sentiment is likely to more directly impact Republicans this fall since they are both literally and figuratively in charge.
The CNN numbers back up that supposition. Just 27 percent of those tested said they were more likely to vote for the incumbent in a race, while 55 percent said they wuld be more inclined to support the challenger. Compare that to a CNN poll taken in 1994 when 21 percent said they would back an incumbent and 48 percent said they would back the challenger. (It's worth noting that this question has limited scope because in real races the candidates are not generic. When voters are informed of the foibles of the real life challengers, they often opt for the incumbent devil they know.)
One element of the CNN survey that Republicans are likely to take as a positive sign is that both sides appear to be more enthusiastic to vote in 2006 than in previous elections. Forty-seven percent of Democrats and 44 percent of Republicans said they were more enthusiastic to vote compared to past elections, while 40 percent of Democrats and 38 percent of Republicans were less enthusiastic this time around.
In 1994, just 29 percent of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic to vote in that election than in previous contests, while 50 percent said they were less enthusiastic. Those numbers presaged the depressed Democratic base vote, which led to massive Republican gains in both chambers.
At the moment, the Republican base's level of energy appears strong. That DOES NOT mean that Republicans will avoid losing seats this fall -- a certainty at this point -- but it could well limit their losses in districts with a reliable Republican base vote. It is those seats that will decide the majority come November. |
