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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 54.58

-1.0%

Nov 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: RCMac who wrote (21185)	9/7/2006 8:51:55 AM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (1) of 52153

>>A month ago we were out of oil, now suddenly we have the biggest find in 3o years! It is a big find but it could be an order of magnitude bigger and NOT come close to changing the supply/demand problem. Assume Walker ridge starts producing 400K brl/d in four years. Today the world uses 80M brl/d. That is 1/2 of 1% of curent production and production is uniformly (almost) in decline as ALL the fields decline. Catarell (the big Mexican field) will over the next 4 years see production decline by 0.8 to 1.2M brl/d. (statement from memory) That would nearly offset the top estimates of potential production from Walker Ridge. ij

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