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Technology Stocks : ZOMX - Zomax, Inc.

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To: Grommit who wrote (6)9/25/1997 3:40:00 PM
From: Grommit   of 322
 
Research Reports....

I just received my investor package from the company and it included copies of research reports from RJ Steichen & Co and The Principal Financial Group. Both are "buys", obviously.

Updated on 8/4/97, RJ estimated sales(000) & EPS for 97 & 98:
YearEnd - sales - EPS
12/95 - $13,217 - 0.19 Actual
12/96 - $18,547 - 0.34 Actual -78% EPS growth
12/97 - $36,000 - 0.50 Est - 47%
12/98 - $45,000 - 0.65* Est - 30% *

* RJ says that the 0.65 is the lower bound of the range of 0.65 to 0.75 per share. I like 0.75 -- that would continue with the 50% growth rate. I guess I am not worried about the 1998 estimate yet -- there is room for upgrades.

Principal has 0.47 and 0.68 EPS in the next 2 years.

RJ says target $7.50 to $10 this year and $10 to $13 next year.
Principal has 12 month target of $12-14 in report dated 8/11/97.

........
I think they are light on the target price using 15-20 PE. At the higher end of their expectations we could get the $0.75 EPS in 1998 times a PE of 30ish, for $22 per share. (It is at $9 today). And of course we are all hoping that thay can pull off the 50% continued growth.... then why not a PE of 40 and stock price at $30?

I have a call into CFO and will ask a few standard questions. I see no big issues in the stuff I have looked at.

They mention that DVD duplicating services will be offered in the 2nd half of this year. I will ask if that is happening. They are also installing new CD glass mastering equip in Minnesota and constructing a new CD mfg plant in San Jose -- 100,000 sq ft. I wonder if more acquisitions are being eyed or if they are required to produce $50 Million of sales. I wonder if they see things marketing constrained or manufacturing constrained in 98.....

I will post more later no doubt.
Anybody here?

:o)
Grommit
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