Re: "Iranian threats mean nothing to you?"
I'm not sure what 'threats' you are referring to, but, as far as Iran goes, I'm not over-much worried about them.
We have a NUMBER of factors playing to our significant advantage, vis-a-vie the Persians. (The fact that MOST Muslims in the world are Sunni, and are also not Persian, and can be counted on to oppose Iran's aggrandizement... the fact that they have a VERY young population (median age around 15, I think) who are mostly Western-longing, and opposed to their Theocratic rulers --- the Mullahs are likely even *more* unpopular with their people then Bush is here... the fact that their oil reserves are likely past-peak, etc.)
On the other-hand, as a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (UNLIKE Pakistan or India or Israel), Iran DOES have an internationally recognized legal right to a civilian nuclear power program... the problem becomes how to KEEP them from developing a nuclear WEAPONS capability like Pakistan and North Korea and India and Israel did....
There, I don't see much hope but for the possibility to DELAY their joining of the 'nuclear weapons club'. They have been attacked so much over the years (by Saddam in a hugely bloody war, by the U.S. in overthrowing their democratically elected government and forcing a King on them, etc.) that the acquisition of nuclear weapons is VERY POPULAR with the people.
They ARE nationalistic (just like we are), and they see the weapons as providing them a great deterrance capability --- which is likely true because you don't see anyone really looking to attack North Korea anymore.
They consider themselves justified in this (it *is* a dangerous part of the world, and they *are* surrounded by nuclear weapons armed states: Israel, Turkey/US, Russia, China, Pakistan, etc.), because they have OFFERED to forgo nuclear weapons --- if the entire Middle East signs a treaty to become a 'nuclear weapons free zone' (ie, Israel giving up it's nuclear bombs, Turkey giving up the nuclear option... and maybe even Pakistan too, although Pak ain't in the Middle East).
THAT ain't gonna happen... but maybe, just maybe, if we *slow down* (add a few MORE YEARS to the 8 or 10 years it's already expected to take them to get their first bombs) the drive toward weapons, new governments in Iran (remember all those young people) might decide --- like Brazil did just a few years ago --- to go for WEALTH and not WEAPONS.
Still... the young people are polling just as much for nuclear weapons as the old are. (Support seems to be in the 80% - 90% range there.)
Like I said though --- not too much worried. (I think that Pakistan, who already has nuclear weapons, is more likely to prove a bigger risk for the world before too long... and, of course, North Korea is a rather LARGE risk... and Burma is just as much a nut-case.) |
