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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (69621)9/11/2006 4:31:21 PM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
@gold and pm shares -- trotsky, 16:27:01 09/11/06 Mon
today qualifies as one of those unmitigated disaster days we see now and then. the rate of the HUI's decline is as of today approx. 3.2 times faster than the rate of decline of the likewise volatile XOI.
what's left are ugly charts (today's gap in the XAU looks extra ominous), so i'll just name the few positive signs (the list is short):
1. big volume in the gold contract today around the lows (this has been a positive sign throughout the bull market to date)
2. the aforementioned divergence between cumulative Rydex cash flow ratio and fund price and
3. a divergence between PoG and XAU/HUI (the former's lower low vs. the latter's higher lows).

divergences of this sort always leave open the possibility that all is not lost, provided they are confirmed by subsequent price action. anyway, one should be stopped out of trading positions by now, and if not, should watch that lateral support the XAU and HUI almost landed on today. if that gives way, this is likely to become a more extensive downturn.

mozel@Keynes' 'long run' -- trotsky, 15:30:47 09/11/06 Mon
it is not only callous, it's also an extraordinarily stupid thing to say for an alleged economist.
after all, the 'long run' is always also the here and now - since the here and now is when we experience the effects of past economic policies that were enacted in disregard of the long run.
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