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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 458.00+1.4%Jan 23 4:00 PM EST
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To: Tommaso who wrote (9250)9/13/2006 1:24:12 AM
From: JJJK  Read Replies (1) of 219763
 
"cannot even be pumped for five or six years"

Exactly!

From time to time the markets seize on some will of the wisp or another to in some degree justify a corrective move. The Chevron discovery in the Gulf is at this point a completely unknowable factor. The geologists involved simply do not know how small or large this find in fact is. Likewise the source information is completely unclear as to what the ultimate division of oil vs. gas will be. Also the circumstances of recovering this resource are of unknown difficulty and cost. What we do know is that the equipment involved in the drilling and the transportation of the product to market will be much more expensive than anything currently in production in the Gulf. In short it would seem that the significance of this discovery, while interesting, lies more in its serving as a pretext for justifying market action rather than a concrete factor with any immediate or definite future significance. We don't know that there is 15 billion barrels at the bottom as some suggest. Some folks do extrapolate this as a possibility. However possibility and probability are completely different bases for investing. My suspicion is that after the current correction in oil prices is over, this market's enthrallment with this discovery will for a long time be relegated to the waste bin of yesterday's news.
JK
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