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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: tizztizz who wrote (69689)9/13/2006 2:58:51 PM
From: bond_bubble  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
I dont think it is because of people losing money. For instance gold, oil etc has not fallen to 2004 prices - they have just fallen like 6-9 months low. I think, the general belief in this board is that the credit will deteriorate (and probably gold etc will go up). So, people used to post a lot of information when it was pointing to more credit deterioration.

As Doug Noland has been saying, credit deterioration is going to take some time as the liquidity is still very high. I used to support Doug Noland's view and people like Mish, Uncle used to argue that Credit deterioration is here etc. and housing inventory was their evidence of credit deterioration. But no. All the coupon passes are all pointing to higher liquidity and "credit" worthiness of credit.

I do think that the inflation, CRB index will go higher before credit bust. A downdraft in commodities merely implies the liquidity will grow more, increasing commodities demand...
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