Gottfried, I don't think we are going to see the "wild swings" in Bookings and Billings that we have in the past.
<<What happens if SEMI bookings decline in the next few months - as they might? how will THEY spin that?>>
If we look at the your chart of SIA chip sales sales versus semi-equip Bookings,
note that in the past, when Bookings went down, SIA chip sales also took a nosedive. However, since the Jan 02 chip sales bottom, sales have been constantly climbing, and Bookings have been also rising, albeit with a couple of peaks and valleys.
But at the moment, if we go forward the next couple of years as projected, with rising chip sales forcasted, semi-equip Bookings and Billings should continue their upward trend. As the chart shows, semi-equip Bookings bottomed in the fall of 01 and have been on an upward trend since then.
We will probably have some "peaks and valleys" in the Bookings number, but I would expect them to vary even less than the past couple of cycles from 02 to the present.
Your chart covers a period from 95 to the present, or 11+ years. During that time, 96, 98, and 01, Bookings bottoms occured close to chip sales bottoms. Since 01, chip sales have been rising, and are projected to rise for at least 2 more years. As long as that projected scenario holds true, IMO semi-equip Bookings and Billings will "follow along" upward.
Don |
