Big Dog's Boom Boom Room Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Frank who wrote (71053)	9/15/2006 3:55:47 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) of 206097

The comming bull run may be enhanced by the next few weeks of warm weather and no hurricanes causing natural gas to be pushed even lower, and near panic sales of NG heavy E&Ps. So we may be going down more - which will make going up look even better. Consider this the opposite of the Katrina/Rita events, where extreme, sudden shortages push prices and valuations toward the sky...only to have them start dropping on October 1. I stayed several days too long at that party (down about 25% from peak values - I had used options to increase leverage ;-) It might take until middle to late October until gas-on-gas competition goes away.... Then enter, stage right, the Bulls friend DEPLETION. And this time, with many offshore rigs having left GOM for more lucrative parts of the world with fewer Hurricanes, it will be much harder to drill our way out of this. The only onshore things helping will be coal bed methane and Barnett Shale type wells. Much of the coal bed production will be limited because of water issues. Now, if The Economist or Business Week will run a cover saying "End of the Oil Boom" I will be very happy.

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