Based on your views, have you made any decisions on how to benefit financially playing either Intel or AMD, or, are you currently on the sidelines awaiting a more concrete opportunity???
Unfortunately, I didn't share Niceguy's optimism. I put a big chunk in Oct 27.5 calls. It has earned me some money, but no where near the ratio, 30 calls would have.
I think the Oct 30 calls look rather expensive. Must be a recent change in sentiment. The stock is volatile, and I'm going to stay away around earnings, that's for sure.
Regarding using my views of a technical nature, to guide my investments.
Well, I saw the beauty of the Opteron platform back when Hyper Transport was called Lightning Data Transport. The market only saw any beauty years later, when Opteron started bringing home the bacon - and enterprise accounts.
With Core2, the market saw the potential almost 6 months prior to release. I saw it before that, but figured I had plenty of time to exit AMD. I got out at around $36, and consider myself lucky. It was a 100% longterm investment in AMD stock, and I got x3.5 my money back. I've since then begun investing more short term and in options too.
Let's say the IBM/AMD process turns out to be all it's cracked up to be. The question is, when can we know ? - And when will others know - specifically WS ?
I think a good indicator will be the voltage and OC'ability of the first 65nm K8s. As I have said, if the wires has been scaled significantly, the 65nm K8 will be faster than 90nm K8 from the start.
If voltage really has dropped to 1.25V, that either means the 65nm transistors are very different from 90nm, or that AMD is trading the drive strength from next gen. strain, for lower power.
The first possibility could be good or bad. It's good if their transistor design simply calls for lower voltage. It's bad if they leak, and voltage reduction is to keep leakage in check.
The second possibility either suggests that AMD is going for lower power instead of performance, or that wire scaling has significantly reduced the need for transistor drive strength.
Since AMD is in dire need of performance, I don't see why they would go for lower power.
Bottom line, I don't know enough to know where AMD will go next year - or next quarter for that matter. Intel will probably go up next year - alone from anticipation of beating AMD to a bloody pulp.
If AMD has 3GHz dual cores at 65nm release, I would guess they pulled it off. Otherwise, I will wait and see. |
