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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: GST who wrote (69848)9/15/2006 4:44:51 PM
From: KyrosL  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
There are two secular trends that argue for long term deflation.

One is the plateauing of human population, which we will experience within the next few decades. Already populations in the developed world are dropping, excluding immigration. And in some pretty large developing countries fertility rates are already below replacement level (China, Brazil, etc.).

The second is globalization coupled with huge productivity increases in the developing countries. This results in cheap goods worldwide and, increasingly, cheap services -- for example, IT. And some presumably untouchable services, such as medical, start getting affected too. People are taking trips to India and Thailand for their hospital operations at less than a quarter the US cost with a free vacation thrown in.
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