Is Dow Staging For Moon Shot? :)
Considering the viciousness of the short-squeeze on September put options that bears just endured, what might lie in store for them in October? Logic suggests that if the pessimists were willing to bet heavily on a September crash, as they evidently were, then they will be even more aggressive in betting on a crash in October, historically the worst month for stocks. If so, the stock-market downturn that so many have been expecting, particularly those of us who have closely tracked the scary decline in real estate prices, could turn into a spectacular, last-gasp rally – the Mother of All Bear Traps, if you will.
I pondered this unsettling possibility after receiving a query from a friend of mine who runs one of the most popular gold sites. Is Dow 16500 possible, he asked, based on the inverted head-and-shoulders pattern shown below?
Truth to tell, I’m not much for head-and-shoulders formations, since the pattern has a propensity to pop up everywhere one looks for it. However, the inversion show in the chart does indeed “count” to somewhere above 16000, even if there is no Hidden Pivot target I can find that is much above 13,000. So what about 13000? asked my friend. Well, I replied, if I can contrive to ignore every instinctual bone in my body, there is indeed a case to be made for Dow 13000 – or to be more precise, Dow 13045, as shown in the chart below. While this may seem highly improbable to those who believe a deep recession has already begun, a purely mechanical reading of the technical evidence suggests it is a prospect that cannot, and should not, be ruled out.
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