SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Future Schlock!!!!
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Arthur Radley who wrote (21)9/16/2006 9:24:08 AM
From: gcrispin   of 34
 
TD,

I read your USDA posts with more than a passing interest as I and my family own farmland that grows soft white wheat. The farmland has been owned by my family since 1902, and although I've never been a farmer myself, I have followed the ebb and flow of wheat prices and agricultural predictions.

I couldn't get your link to work. But going to the USDA website I found my own graph that I found useful.

fas.usda.gov

Correct me if I'm wrong, but what I understand of your thesis is that there will be greater exports from the US due to increased demand. This may very well be true. I believe there are two trends that could threaten that projection.

There is a tremendous amount of interest in alternative energy in the farm belt. A great deal of corn could be diverted to ethanol. Biodiesel is also a hot topic in our growing region and supplies for export could be diverted to meet our own needs for energy.

If you notice the "wild cards" to the graph I posted, it mentions the southern hemispheres. There is tremendous growth in agricultural products from South America. Sub-tropical regions that once were not considered suitable for growing corn now have the potential to grow three crops a year due to the addition of critical soil amendments. Eastern Europe is also dramatically increasing their wheat exports as well. So my point is that there is tremendous international competition that could dampen US exports. My graph indicates the up and down nature of US exports and much of it depends on what regional weather factors have blessed or played havoc on certain crops.

If QMAR is not uniquely postioned only for the US export market, then it could be an interesting play. Other suggestions might be Monsanto, Agrium, or AGCO which have an international exposure more than just the US market.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News