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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers

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From: John McCarthy	9/16/2006 9:52:15 AM
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September 15, 2006 Credit Suisse says commodity crash likely over, Fri., Sept. 15, 2006, 12:59 PM Today’s report from Credit Suisse Global Research is an interesting one from the perspective that they say there are indications that falling commodity prices are not sustainable, and may be bottoming out here. Download Credit Suisse Commodities report. The report acknowledges the downward trend and the reasons – no surprises there – but there are some interesting points made, such as: • The commodity futures contango is causing losses now to traders intent on rolling contracts (longs) forward. Try to understand the contango - backwardation implications of futures markets. • The commodity indices may lose further ground, but the rapid descent is unsustainable because of (i) inventory shortages at a time of seasonal demand by jewelers (gold and silver), and new demand for auto’s with tougher emission-controls (platinum) (ii) tight base metal inventories combined with a presumed mild economic slowdown, and (iii) supply shortages in Crude Oil (first one reported by U.S. Dept of Energy this week since June, and probable lower production by OPEC. Even the biggest of the HB&B firms like Credit Suisse have been offside recently with respect to their “best” picks for trades. Check out the top of page 5 of this report to see that both recommendations would have handed traders their head on a platter. The bottom table of page 5 is a good one though because it gives the Credit Suise assessment of the market’s most likely plus best and worst case levels of (a) support and (b) resistance for all the major commodities. MORE billcara.com ORIGINALLY posted by Chipas here: Message 22817068 can't talk today - I'm the "limo driver" - of the old beat up Honda Accord ... regards, John

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