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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK)
NOK 6.070-1.5%Dec 5 3:59 PM EST

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From: masa9/16/2006 1:42:05 PM
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The long term picture of the cell phone market.

Cell phone business has been one of the biggest success stories of the last more than ten years. But it has a fundamental limit it will hit in the coming years.

Just happened to calculate it. Today there are about 1.5 billion cell phones in the world (~25 % global penetration). This year ~900 million phones will be sold. Assuming 25 % annual unit growth rate and 2 years renewal cycle, there will be more phones (7.2 billion) than people in the world in 2014, 8 years from now. Will that ever happen? I don't think so.
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