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Strategies & Market Trends : Contrarian Investing

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To: pcyhuang who wrote (141)	9/17/2006 1:17:39 AM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (2) of 4080

Williams %R gets oversold pretty easily. If you look at the one year chart of the same group of stock you'll find that its the next or second oversold condition that sets up the buy... stockcharts.com\|D\|K14 I see a little bounce coming, then another declining leg. I'll be watching for indicators that don't make new lows with price - divergence - and then a reversal up as a buy signal...Looks to me however that this commodity stock decline has at least the institutional fiscal year end selling to get through, mid October, and if there isn't much of a rally off that, year end tax loss selling will keep prices under pressure, unless something BIG comes along, like easier monetary policy by the FED and Japanese and a weaker dollar.... The new year rally will be slow to get off the ground as the economies of the world will be experiencing their maximum slowdown but the rally will extend without the hard down of this year, making the 2007 a good year for buys and holds... All the late comers have to get washed out and bearish mindset instilled before there's a turn...Good news: commercials in Crude are moving toward a flat position and those in Gold and Silver are less negative every week...The bottom will come but not till the bulls are fully worn out ...

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