Montana Senate: Tester By Nine
Tester (D) 52% Burns (R) 43%
September 18, 2006
The latest Rasmussen Reports election survey in Montana shows Democrat Jon Tester leading incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns 52% to 43% (see crosstabs). The candidates were tied at 47% in August’s survey. The current results represent Tester’s biggest lead ever. In the fall of 2005, Burns had a double digit lead. That collapsed by January as the Abramoff story became big news. Since then, for the bulk of the campaign, Tester and Burns have generally been within a few points of each other.
Rasmussen Reports is shifting this race from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power ratings. Two other races (Ohio and Rhode Island are also being shifted from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat” at this time.
The incumbent Senator Burns came under attack this week by television ads sponsored by Campaign Money Watch that criticize his links to the big oil companies. The ads, along with another from the Tester camp that tracks Burns’ recent slip-ups on the campaign trail, were posted to the popular Web site YouTube. The site allows users to post video for free and has become a useful tool for several campaigns this season. Republican Senator George Allen of Virginia became a YouTube victim when his controversial comments about one of his opponent’s campaign staffers were captured on video and posted to the site.
Tester has added nearly 10 points to his base vote; 92% of Democrats now say they’ll vote for him in November, up from 84% last month. He’s also pulling votes from 20% of Republicans. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of GOP voters are supporting Burns.
A majority of voters (54%) have an unfavorable opinion of Burns, with more than one-third of respondents (37%) reporting “very unfavorable” views of the incumbent. Both those numbers are up two points from our last survey.
Tester earns favorable reviews from 55%.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) say the economy is the number one issue in the 2006 campaign cycle, followed by national security (20%) and the war in Iraq (17%.) The top three issues remain unchanged from last time this question was asked of Montana voters, though the war and national security have swapped slots.
One matters of trust, Republicans are generally favored across the board, but the advantage is significant only on the issues of National Security (52% to 39%) and Iraq (49% to 42%). On the economy, immigration, and taxes, there preference for Repubicans is only by a point or two.
Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.
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The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 13, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. (see Methodology) |
