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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 220.93+5.2%3:39 PM EST

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To: pass pass who wrote (14473)9/25/1997 9:42:00 PM
From: Maverick   of 61433
 
All, we had an upgrade and 2 mega contracts, why the stock still doesn't react? Just what kind of
force is pushing this stock down? No one seems to expect ASND to meet the earning this time,
but how bad is it going to be???


Today's UUNet release sounds quite nervous, 2 corrections! Just how hard it is to get one
release straighten out?
It seems ASND must have cajoled UUnet to bend over backward kissing off in an effort to boost the stock. If ASND were comfortable w/t the estimate, then why is it going extra miles to do that ? It appeared that no one was fooled by this action. Now just how tolerant is the St. wrt the earning short fall ? I expect ASND will deliver a rosy outlook tomorrow in the Mont Sec Conf. as they will do it again when it releases the earning. This is called crisis mgmt. How much bad news has been factored in the price ? ASND is facing increased competition in all business areas. CSCO devoted 1/3 of R&D resource to focus on the ISP business. BAY, COMS have made inroad into this area. Certainly, the incumbent has the most to lose. The acquisition integration takes time to materialize. So, there will be hiccup in the future. I am afraid that in an effort to go all out trying to make the qtr more respectable, ASND depletes the order pipeline and backlog at the expense of the next qtr resulting in a vicious circle. I'd be watching Account Receivable when the earning is released. Also as the DSO increases, the chance of missing future estimate increases. ASND also built up inventory for last-minute orders which may tie up capital and swell inventory if the orders don't come thru. We already saw how the last heroic qtr affected the July & Aug sale. It'd take time to rebuild the pipeline again.
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