2.19 million subscribers a year is possible, do you not think so?
Sure -- both services have done it at times -- but Sirius isn't doing it now. Last week they said they are still shy of 5 million, which means they have yet to add 321,000 in Q3 (roughly 81 days), which amounts to fewer than 4,000/day.
Are you also denying SIRI is winning the retail game?
"Winning"? No, they aren't "winning". Obviously, for the last few quaraters, as Stern came onboard, Sirius has outsold XM at retail. But that doesn't constitute "winning".
It is important to understand that these things are transitory. Sirius spent more money than anyone ever has, so obviously, they should get something out of it, and they have. But it is early to conclude that any fundamental, lasting change in market share has occurred as a result of Stern. We don't know, for example, what effect Oprah will have on XM's #s, or for that matter, what effect XM's loss of NASCAR might have or what effect SIRI's cancellation of a key channel so they can have an "All WHO" channel might have. These things change over time. For 1/2-3/4 billion, it seems reasonable that Sirius should get a couple quarters' pop out of Stern.
But it is obvious that the Stern hype is pretty much dead at this point and he's trying anything he can do to regenerate interest, while the rest of the world has moved on to other other Free FM entertainment. |
