Dale
As you know I'm fairly long in the Thai market. I don't expect that to change.
This was one slick coup. Well planned and thought out, the primary thing being able to do it with the idiot out of the country and not able to rally his 'classmates' (stooges) to get into a fray.
Today the streets are quiet, bank, government,school, stock market holiday as decreed last evening.
Statement today that a civilian led government would be in place within two weeks and elections held within a year.
The leader is the highest ranking muslim in the military which may bode well for a settlement of that long lasting mess in southern Thailand. Example the Hat Yai bombing of last weekend.
Most Thais are basically in agreement that Thaksin had to go. He has totally dominated and raped this country for 5 years and manipulated most gov't agencies by installing cronies at every possible occasion.
Thaksin's main support comes/came from the north agro folks that have little education and don't read the news and have few TV sets to watch. Example: big deal last year was a 1000 baht gift to each Tambon in the country. Amounted to about $18 per village. Most of it went to the Head Man putting it down on a new pickup truck.....
Journalists have been placed in just awful situations trying to report on issues facing Thailand. Check out the lawsuit filed by Thaksin against an Economist reporter for describing the actual conditions of courts deciding "libel" charges, he, Thaksin has filed.
The local stock market will take a real beating tomorrow when it opens. I expect it to be short lived and a buying opportunity. All industry/business folks seem to think if this military gov't is truly short lived (These folks have a reputation of being straight shooters and totally loyal to the King)most sectors will rebound quickly. The possible exception is the tourism industry which has problems not related to politics.
Some specific stocks to watch other than TTF are Siam Commercial Bank, Bangkok Bank and Siam Cement and PTT.
As you know I've suspected this, or something similar was bound to happen here. Yet, it is still a growing economy and an appreciating currency. The baht is up over 8% to date this year even with a .57% hit yesterday as a result of the coup. GDP growth is still expected to be %2+ even with all that is going on.
Noted some comments here so thought I would put in my two cents. As I live here full time and have decent resources to draw on I want to caution folks, don't be tooooo alarmed by this situation.
Basically everyone from the King ( who is truly revered by the Thais) on down knew that the idiot wouldn't go of his own accord. He has had numerous chances in the past7 months.
For details on the coup check out www.bangkokpost.com and www.nationmultimedia.com the two English newspapers here. One is slightly pro-Thaksin and the other slightly against.
If you think this is all hogwash, read between the lines of very very soft denounciations by most governments. Kind of backdoor slaps on the back the way I read them.
Good investing Bt |
