SB/Mansky downgrade on STX/WDC/KOMG (couple days ago)
Data Storage Infrastructure Citigroup Investment Research HDD UPSIDE LESS CLEAR PRIOR TO 1H CY07; REDUCING STX & WDC TO HOLD September 18, 2006 SUMMARY * Reducing ratings on WDC and STX from Buy Paul Mansky to Hold target price from $31 to $25.50 +1-415-951-1668 (STX) and $24 to $18.50 (WDC). Although paul.mansky@citigroup.com further deterioration in the market is not Christopher J Warner expected, the opportunity for seasonal +1-415-951-1727 fundamental improvement appears christopher.j.warner@citigroup.com constrained, leaving the shares range-bound. * Downside risk appears modest among each, less at STX given product breadth, acquisition-related cost savings and buy-back. * Demand is tracking reasonably well. At issue is a slower than expected mix-shift to high cap HDD's in PC, associated (albeit moderating from June) pricing pressure in DT and NB and inventory overhang. * Reducing HDD unit TAM from 15% and 17% growth (CY06E & 07E) to 14% and 16%, respectively. Expect end-market reacceleration to commence ~CQ2 off Vista/Leopard and attractive comps. SUMMARY VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION DATA Expected Returns Earnings Per Share Company Price Price Div. Total Ratin Div.(E Targe LTGR Current Next Yr (Ticker) g ) t Yr Komag Inc $32.87 21.7% 0.0% 21.7% Cu 1H $0.00 $40.00 NA $4.71E $4.74E (KOMG) rr Pr 1H $0.00 $40.00 NA $4.71E $4.74E ev Seagate $22.09 15.4% 1.4% 16.9% Cu 2H $0.32 $25.50 5% $1.76E $2.61E Technology- rr (STX) Pr 1H $0.32 $31.00 5% $2.05E $2.62E ev Western $16.05 15.3% 0.0% 15.3% Cu 2H $0.00 $18.50 NA $1.76E $1.87E Digital rr (WDC) Pr 1H $0.00 $24.00 NA $1.83E $1.92E ev
OPINION
We are reducing our ratings and target price for both Western Digital and Seagate, given our views that the opportunity for back half seasonal improvement in fundamentals appears both narrower and less significant than recent history and general expectations. For Western Digital, our prior Buy rating and $24 target has been adjusted to Hold / $18.50. For Seagate, we are reducing our Buy to a Hold while our target is trimmed from $31 to $25.50.
At the center of our concerns are the prolonged traction of 80GB desktop drives, muted reflection of end-demand amidst inventory work-down, and ongoing price instability in DT and NB. Although we continue to have a favorable view for calendar 2007 as a whole (Vista mix shift, easy comps), the industry level improvements are not expected to commence until the June quarter, or FQ4 for both STX and WDC. Faced with this profile, and valuations that appear reasonable, we prefer the sidelines during the next 1-2 quarters and would consider accumulation at the beginning of the year.
INDUSTRY VIEW
We have adjusted our industry unit forecast from 15% and 17% growth in calendar 2006 and 2007 to 14% and 16%, respectively. The basis for the revision is multi-faceted, including the softer June '06 quarter, its associated inventory overhang and a modestly weaker than traditional back half demand profile. We expect PC-related seasonality to be particularly pronounced this year, with PC- builds drawing down sharply in Nov/December and remaining depressed (relative) through the first quarter in advance of the anticipated OS refreshes from Microsoft and Apple.
Historically, the industry has benefited from a positive mix shift during into back-to-school and the holiday season as consumer PC purchases (which typically carry higher capacity drives) outpace corporate demand. This year, while overall demand appears to be tracking (according to our PC analyst Rich Gardner), we believe the mix-up to higher capacity drives, particularly in desktop, is progressing more slowly than anticipated. In addition to our more recent primary checks, we point out that both Seagate and Western Digital indicated a disproportionate amount of the June quarter overhang was associated with high capacity drives while on September 6th Komag indicated that its September quarter was tracking below plans, due in part to slower than expected mix shift to >120GB media.
We believe this is primarily a function of the incursion of notebooks into the desktop market continuing. With this, PC OEM's are attempting to segment the market, with DT pricing being the primary lever. With the lower price points in DT comes a resistance to a higher bill of materials, hence the widely available trailing edge 80GB drives are proving to be "stickier" than many had anticipated. Although pricing at the 80GB capacity point has not materially degraded versus the difficult June, it does not appear to have improved as Samsung and others continue to vie for Maxtor's redistributed market share. Notebook unit volumes are expected to be attractive. However, with each of the major HDD OEM's now in the market, pricing here has also been challenging.
Although we acknowledge that the company's yield and product positioning challenges are such that uniform extrapolation is unwarranted, we point out Hitachi's recent downward revision as another input relative to our moderating industry level (near-term) views. Hitachi currently commands approximately 15% of the market (units), with concentrations in notebook (31%), enterprise (14%) and desktop (10%). For the December year (adjusted for March reporting), Hitachi reduced second half unit targets by 14% while reducing ASP's by 8% (~$9/unit), the latter representing an expected 9% ASP decline versus the first half of the year.
Exhibit 1: Hitachi's revised HDD forecast
Source: Company and CIR estimate
We expect the dynamics presented above to persist, to varying degrees, through the balance of the calendar year and into early 2007. From there, we expect the Vista-equipped PC products will likely be the vehicle to re-accelerate demand for higher capacity drives (160GB), which should be more broadly available. Improved units and mix within PC-related HDD's coupled with an anticipated easing of the competitive dynamic surrounding the Maxtor land grab amidst more favorable year-year compares has our full year 2007 view continuing to be favorable. Key milestones to watch that include: 1) channel inventory levels entering December; 2) timing of the Vista launch; 3) Samsung's appetite for low (to zero) margin share gain in desktop.
SEAGATE
We are reducing our rating and price target on Seagate from Buy / $31 to Hold / $25.50. Of the disk drive manufacturers, we view the risk profile at Seagate to be more attractive given the company's product diversification, opportunity for acquisition related synergies and pending share repurchase. However, given our more muted near-to-mid term views at the industry level, we are adjusting our estimates downward. We see the downside risk as limited to ~$18, or 0.8x NTM sales -- the company's recent two year low rolling NTM revenue multiple.
We are reducing our September quarter revenue outlook to $2.68B from $2.72B and EPS to $0.19 from $0.35. For the full year we are reducing both our revenue and EPS outlook, from $11.9B and $2.05 to $11.8B and $1.76, respectively. The company is expected to continue to cost-optimize the Maxtor solutions over the next 1-2 quarters, positioning itself well to engage the improved unit growth profile in 2007, per our estimates. However, over the near-term Seagate is not expected to benefit as fully as we had expected from two key programs. First, with the slower than expected mix shift to 160's in the DT market, the company will not fully be able to bring its PMR lead to bear on the market. Second, the 1.8" drives missed the design window for CQ4, pushing the initial material ramp into the seasonally weaker first half. Additionally, with Woodlands2 now fully equipped, incremental media will need to be outsourced from Komag prior to the construction of Woodlands3, not expected until late calendar 2007.
WESTERN DIGITAL
We are reducing our rating and price target on Western Digital from Buy / $24 to Hold / $18.50. Like Seagate, Western Digital lacks a clear catalyst in 2006 that would provide upside to the current share levels. Unlike Seagate, however, near-term support for the stock in the form of a buyback is on hold until the company can file its 10-K, which has been delayed until the board of directors can complete its stock option grant review. We see the downside risk as limited to ~$15, or 0.7x NTM sales -- the company's recent two year low rolling NTM revenue multiple.
We are reducing our September quarter revenue and EPS outlook to $1.14B/$0.41 from $1.17B/$0.42. For the full year we are reducing both our revenue and EPS outlook, from $4.9B and $1.83 to $4.7B and $1.76, respectively. The company's dependence on the desktop market (78% of FY06 revenues), while improved from an historical standpoint, still makes it more susceptible to our industry level concerns regarding mix and demand air pockets. Additionally, consensus expectations that WD would grab at least 50% of Maxtor's desktop sales appears at risk after aggressive moves by Hitachi and Samsung to expand their own share of the market.
QUARTERLY ESTIMATES PER SHARE DATA Current Year Next Year Next Year + 1 Ticker Period Current Previous Current Previous Current Previous KOMG 1Q $1.09A $1.09A $1.19E $1.19E NA NA (FYE Dec) 2Q $1.21A $1.21A $1.19E $1.19E NA NA 3Q $1.12E $1.12E $1.20E $1.20E NA NA 4Q $1.28E $1.28E $1.15E $1.15E NA NA Year $4.71E $4.71E $4.74E $4.74E $4.42E $4.42E STX 1Q $0.19E $0.35E NA NA NA NA (FYE Jun) 2Q $0.42E $0.52E NA NA NA NA 3Q $0.53E $0.57E NA NA NA NA 4Q $0.61E $0.61E NA NA NA NA Year $1.76E $2.05E $2.61E $2.62E $2.57E $2.57E WDC 1Q $0.41E $0.42E NA NA NA NA (FYE Jun) 2Q $0.49E $0.52E NA NA NA NA 3Q $0.41E $0.43E NA NA NA NA 4Q $0.44E $0.46E NA NA NA NA Year $1.76E $1.83E $1.87E $1.92E $1.92E $1.97E
VALUATION AND RISKS -- COMPANIES DISCUSSED
Komag (KOMG--$32.87; 1H)
Valuation
Our price target for Komag shares is $40. We employ both Price/Sales and Price/Earnings as our valuation methodologies but reply upon our P/E output as the primary price target determinant. Comparables for the company include stand-alone disk drive manufacturer Seagate as well as component provider Hutchinson Technology. Although the company competes against several international companies including Showa Denko, Fuji Electric, Hoya and Asahi Glass, given each derives the majority of their revenue from sources other than the HDD media market, we do not view them to be relevant comparables from a valuation perspective.
Based on our estimates, Komag is currently trading at 1x next-12-month (NTM) sales and 7x NTM EPS (GAAP). On a comparative basis, the company's rolling mean, high and low NTM revenue multiples over the prior two years have been 1.2x, 1.7x and 0.7x, respectively. Conversely, the shares NTM earnings multiple range over this same period has been 10x, 12x and 7x, respectively.
With respect to our Price/Earnings valuation, we assign an 8x multiple to our NTM GAAP EPS estimate of $4.78. The discounted multiple relative to the two year mean reflects our views that the coming 12 months will likely capture the bulk of the upside relative to the current cycle. The modest premium to the trough (7x) reflects what we see as near-term upside associated with the company's VPA relationships with Seagate, Western Digital, Hitachi and Samsung (pending). Our rounded price target under this approach is $40 .
Had we opted to employ a Price/Sales valuation, our multiple assignment of 1.2x would suggest a $36.00 price target. Our multiple assignment is in-line with the company's two year mean, given our views that near-term operating margins are depressed due to underutilized capacity, which will be quickly absorbed in the coming quarters.
Risks
We rate shares of Komag as High Risk. Our risk rating reflects our views related to the stock's price volatility (Beta = 1.8 weekly since 12/2003 per Bloomberg), earnings stability (cyclicality) and anticipated cash flows. Although we acknowledge the company's prior Chapter 11 status merits consideration, with the improved capital structure including lower levels of debt at more attractive terms and the sale of spare facilities, Komag's post- restructuring operating efficiency has minimized the chance for recurrence.
* Incremental industry capacity coming on-line in calendar 2006/7. Throughout calendar 2005 and early 2006, the dominant theme within the disk drive industry has been tight supply amidst strong demand. In order to restore balance, many of the media and substrate suppliers to the market, both captive and merchant, are expected to increase capacity in the coming year. Our current expectations are that, absent Komag, the bulk of this incremental capacity will be in glass-based media at 2.5" and below. Although considerable barriers are present related to redeploying capacity, most notably the ability to procure substrate, should the market more aggressively pursue aluminum versus glass, Komag's utilization rates and margins could be negatively impacted. Similarly, should this incremental capacity be met with lower than expected demand levels, the company would likely fail to meet our estimates and price objective.
* Introduction of perpendicular recording could reduce disk-per-drive ratio. We expect the industry to begin to more broadly introduce disk drives utilizing perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR) technology during the latter half of calendar 2006. PMR holds the promise of re-accelerating the areal density curve, or the amount of data that can be stored per square inch of surface area, which is required for the disk drive industry to maintain a trajectory that is consistent with Moore's Law. However, should this expected improvement in recording density not be offset by an equal increase in storage demand, disk drive unit volumes will likely face deceleration. Such was the case during the 1997-2002 period, during which a sizable industry capacity build-up amidst strong unit demand was met with the introduction of a new recording technology (MR, or magneto-resistive), resulting in broad under-utilization of capacity and significant operating losses. Given their exposure to both disk drive unit volumes and the average number of disks per drive, this scenario was disproportionately negative for component suppliers, including Komag. We believe that the industry and Komag are better positioned versus the 1997 example due to a lower desktop disk- per-drive ratio entering the transition (1.7:1 vs. ~3:1), new storage-hungry end-markets (consumer) and tighter supply. Reflecting this, our estimates assume only a modest contraction in the disk-per-drive ratio beginning in calendar 2007. Should our ratio assumptions prove to be too aggressive, the company's ability to achieve our estimates and price objective will be materially challenged.
Customers are also competitors. In addition to procuring media and/or substrate from Komag, several of the company's largest customers also have a captive source of supply. Specifically, Maxtor/MMC and Seagate, which together accounted for 54% of revenue in the September 2005 quarter, manufacture a significant portion of their own media. Although each has recently entered into multi-year volume purchase agreements (VPA's) with the company, there is no guarantee and only limited recourse should said volumes fail to materialize. If end-demand proves to be weaker than generally expected, or the transition to perpendicular recording proves more disruptive to unit demand or the disk-per- drive ratio, industry utilization rates will be materially negatively impacted. Under this scenario, Komag's customers who have captive media operations would likely source a greater percentage of their media and/or substrate requirements internally. Related, Seagate recently announced its intentions to acquire Maxtor. Our current assessment is that this acquisition poses little near- to intermediate-term risk and only modest long-term risk for Komag. However, history has demonstrated that consolidation in the HDD industry comes in waves. Should this prove the case, we view Western Digital as the most acquirable company remaining due to the company's status as the last remaining stand-alone drive manufacturer of scale, excluding the combined Seagate/Maxtor entity. If Western Digital were to be acquired by a third party that has alternative media suppliers, our estimates and price target would likely prove unachievable.
Seagate (STX--$22.09; 2H)
Valuation
We employ both Price/Sales and Price/Earnings as our valuation methodologies, with a $25.50 price target. Our prior price target of $31 had strictly employed Price/Earnings. As a participant in a cyclical industry, we believe the company is generally awarded peak multiples at cycle troughs and vice- versa. Further, during cyclical upswings, we believe P/E becomes the dominant valuation metric, with Price/Sales more broadly employed during plateaus and declines. Give our view that the industry is likely entering at least a 1-2 quarter period of plateau, we have opted to take a more conservative stance by reverting to a target derived by both P/E and P/Sales metrics.
Seagate is currently trading at 1.1x our next twelve month (NTM) sales estimate ($12B) and 13x our NTM EPS estimate of $1.75, which is inclusive of stock-based compensation expenses but excludes acquisition related charges. On a sales basis, this compares to two-year rolling NTM low, mean and high multiples of 0.8x, 1.1x and 1.4x. On an earnings basis, the company's two-year rolling NTM mean is 15x, while its low and high have been 8x and 43x, respectively. Our target P/E multiple of 15x represents is unchanged, and in-line with the mean. We have opted to employ a mean versus low multiple, as would normally be the case at the top of a cycle, given our views that non-systemic fundamental improvement associated with he cost-optimization of the Maxtor acquisition still lies ahead of the company. This view is further bolstered by the company's repurchase authorization equating to ~15% of outstanding shares. Our price target under this approach is $26.50 (rounded).
For our Price/Sales valuation, we are applying a 1.1x multiple versus 1.4x previously. Our prior 1.4x represented the high sales multiple over the prior two year, while our 1.1x currently employed represents the mean. Our 1.1x assignment reflects a balance of our views related to the HDD industry entering a period of fundamental deceleration, coupled with non-systemic room for improvement at Seagate given the Maxtor acquisition, product introductions and technology advancements. Our price target under this approach is $24.50 (rounded).
Risks
We rate shares of Seagate as High Risk. The company's balance sheet is in good condition and profitability levels are improving. Additionally, the company's relatively high trading volume provides ample source of liquidity. Under these conditions a Medium Risk assignment would normally be considered. However, with near-term visibility generally poor and having demonstrated a high degree of earnings volatility, we believe a High Risk rating is warranted. Specific sources of risk that may impede the shares from achieving our price target include:
* Exposure to desktop market. Although revenue concentration is expected to trend down from the 45% reported in FY 2006 to 41% in FY 2007, Seagate continues to be significantly exposed to low-margin desktop drives that have historically exhibited a significant amount of ASP erosion due to the competitive nature of the industry. CIR's estimates suggest the rate of growth in the desktop PC market (units) to slow in calendar 2006 versus 2005. While new product traction is expected to drive revenue growth outside of desktop, incremental price aggression could impede the company's ability to meet our forecast.
* Longer product life cycles may increase competition. During periods of rapid capacity increases, pricing curves have historically been steep while product cycles have been short. More recently, as the rate of increase in areal density has slowed, product cycles have elongated. Although currently offset by favorable supply/demand conditions, as increased capacity comes on-line these longer sales cycles may result in greater than historical ASP pressures.
* Execution risk is significant. Given the sophisticated nature of disk drive technology, product transitions carry significant risk. The market for disk drive products is highly concentrated at a select number of OEMs, each of which source drives from a number of manufacturers. Should technical issues be discovered during the qualification stage for a new product, time to market for a vendor's product can be delayed, resulting in lost share. Additionally, with price curves aggressively sloped, these delays can impede a company's ability to recoup development costs. Finally, the company is in the midst of the integration phase of a sizable acquisition. Should the company fail to transition manufacturing capacity to Seagate-standard processes in a timely and orderly fashion, the company will likely face market share losses and margin compression.
* Diversified competitors can subsidize drive business. Many of the existing competitors in the HDD are captive within larger, more diversified companies. As internally produced disks can be leveraged to increase profitability within other business segments (i.e. PC/notebook, server/mainframe, and consumer), these competitors can often overlook many of the industry economics that the pure-plays must attempt to navigate.
* Faster Than Expected Migration to Higher-Capacity Drives. Our current expectation is that the shift to 160GB PMR drives on the desktop will be a multi-quarter event kicked off by the rollout of Vista in the spring of 2007. If the migration to higher-capacity drives occurs at a faster than expected rate, Seagate will likely see upside to our current EPS estimates.
Western Digital (WDC--$16.05; 2H)
Valuation
We employ both Price/Sales and Price/Earnings as our valuation methodologies, with our $18.50 price target (rounded) reflecting an average of the two outputs. Our prior price target had been $24.00.
Western Digital is currently trading at 9x our next twelve month (NTM) earnings estimate of $1.76. The company's rolling NTM earnings multiple over the last two years has seen a high of 19x, low of 9x and mean of 13x. With respect to our Price/Earnings valuation, we have lowered our target multiple from 13x to 10x. We have adopted this more conservative approach given our growing concerns over PC unit demand, mix and pricing during the next 9 months which leave our estimates with an elevated risk profile. Our price target under this approach is $17.60.
Western Digital is currently trading at .8x our next twelve month (NTM) sales estimate of $4.7B The company's rolling NTM sales multiple over the last two years has seen a high of 1.1x, low of 0.5x and mean of 0.8x. We have reduced our target multiple from 1.3x to 0.9x to reflect the same concerns expressed previously. Our price target under this approach is $19 (rounded).
Risks
We rate shares of Western Digital as High Risk. The company's working capital metrics lead the industry. Additionally, due to tight cost controls and a disciplined approach to the market, management has been able to deliver improved earnings predictability versus the broader industry. While typically characteristic of a moderate risk profile, the company's shares trade in concert with the balance of the disk drive market, which carries a high degree of volatility. Specific sources of risk that may impede the shares from achieving or materially outperforming our price target include:
* Disproportionately exposed to the desktop market. Although the company's diversification plans are tracking, Western Digital carries the highest desktop concentration in the market. Inherent to this high level of concentration, the company is subject to both elevated seasonality and the risk of channel supply/demand imbalances. Additionally, notebook offerings are expected to gain market share at the expense of desktop products. Subject to this being the case, it is critical the company execute on its efforts to penetrate the notebook market.
* Execution risk is significant. Given the sophisticated nature of disk drive technology, product transitions carry risk. As Western Digital becomes increasingly vertically integrated, technology risks multiply. Should technical issues be discovered during the qualification stage for a new product, time to market for the company's product(s) can be delayed, resulting in lost share. Additionally, with price curves in the HDD industry curves aggressively sloped in even the most attractive of cyclical periods, these delays can impede the company's ability to recoup development costs.
* End-market growth and new product penetration. As is the case across our coverage of the drive industry, end-market growth rates are the primary inputs to our models. Should we overestimate the rate of growth among the desktop, notebook, consumer electronics or enterprise segments, our estimates for the company could be materially underachieved. Additionally, Western Digital is entering into new market segments, most notably the enterprise, notebook and small form factor markets. Should the company fail to achieve our market share expectations, our estimates would likely prove aggressive.
* Faster Than Expected Migration to Higher-Capacity Drives. Our current expectation is that the shift to 160GB PMR drives on the desktop will be a multi-quarter event kicked off by the rollout of Vista in the spring of 2007. If the migration to higher-capacity drives occurs at a faster than expected rate, Western Digital will likely see upside to our current EPS estimates.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION APPENDIX A-1
I, Paul Mansky, research analyst and the author of this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Komag Inc (KOMG)
Ratings and Target Price History - Fundamental Research
Analyst: Paul Mansky (covered since January 3 2006)
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Target Closing
Price Price
Date Rating (USD) (USD)
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3 Jan 06 1H 43.00 34.73
26 Jan 06 1H *56.00 47.81
3 Aug 06 1H *50.00 38.65
7 Sep 06 1H *40.00 31.10
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*Indicates change.
Chart current as of 16 September 2006
Seagate Technology (STX)
Ratings and Target Price History - Fundamental Research
Analyst: Paul Mansky (covered since December 17 2004)
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Target Closing
Price Price
Date Rating (USD) (USD)
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7 Nov 03 2H *25.00 NA
21 Jan 04 2H *20.00 NA
3 Mar 04 2H *17.00 NA
7 Apr 04 *3H *7.00 NA
3 Jun 04 3H *10.00 NA
21 Jul 04 3H *8.00 NA
20 Oct 04 3H *9.00 NA
8 Dec 04 3H *15.00 NA
22 Dec 04 *2H *18.00 NA
18 Jan 05 2H *21.50 NA
19 Apr 05 *1H *23.00 NA
19 Oct 05 1H *18.00 NA
4 Dec 05 1H *22.00 NA
19 Jan 06 1H *32.00 NA
19 Apr 06 1H *31.00 NA
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*Indicates change.
Chart current as of 16 September 2006
Western Digital (WDC)
Ratings and Target Price History - Fundamental Research
Analyst: Paul Mansky (covered since December 23 2004)
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Target Closing
Price Price
Date Rating (USD) (USD)
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24 Oct 03 3H *11.00 12.84
13 Feb 04 Coverage suspended
22 Dec 04 *2H *10.50 10.59
28 Jan 05 2H *12.00 10.48
30 Mar 05 2H *14.50 11.17
28 Jul 05 2H *15.50 14.99
31 Oct 05 2H *13.50 12.10
29 Nov 05 2H *14.50 14.79
21 Dec 05 2H *19.00 18.45
3 Feb 06 *1H *27.00 22.71
27 Jul 06 1H *24.00 16.70
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