U.S. sees delay in big rise in alternative motor fuels By Tom Doggett
Wed Sep 20, 2:57 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration says the United States needs an extra 20 years to meet Congress' goal of having almost a third of U.S. motor fuel supply come from energy sources other than gasoline.
Congress passed energy legislation in 1992 mandating that 30 percent of the fuel used to run U.S. cars and trucks by 2010 come from ethanol, natural gas, hydrogen, electricity or other replacement fuels.
The Energy Department said that goal won't be met, as replacement fuels now supply only 2.5 percent of total motor fuel used, and is proposing to extend the deadline to 2030.
"The amount of replacement fuel used, as a percent of total motor fuel consumed, has essentially been flat for the past decade despite an increase in use of alternative and replacement motor fuels," the DOE said in a notice published on Tuesday in the Federal Register.
"This is because the growth in replacement fuels has been matched by the growth in petroleum motor fuels," the department said. "Expanding production of replacement fuels much beyond 3 percent (of total supply) by 2010 is unlikely."
In order to meet the goal for 2010, when U.S. motor fuel demand is forecast to average more than 12 million barrels a day, the department said replacement fuels would have to total over 3.7 million barrels a day.
However, current U.S. production capacity for ethanol, which is the most prevalent replacement fuel, is only about 313,000 barrels a day, or 4.8 billion gallons a year, according to the Renewable Fuels Association trade group.
New ethanol plants are coming online, but output would have to soar to 60 billion gallons a year by 2010 to replace 30 percent of petroleum-based motor fuel supplies, the DOE said.
That would not be possible, according to the department, because all the corn currently grown by U.S. farmers could make just 18 billion gallons of ethanol a year.
The department said achieving the 30 percent replacement fuel requirement also becomes more difficult each year because more vehicles are put on the road and vehicle miles traveled increase.
There are now 6 million alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) on the road that help lower gasoline use. But to meet the original 2010 goal, over 90 million of the 130 million passenger cars on the road today would have to be replaced with AFVs.
"Meeting this goal would require a 15-fold increase in AFVs within the next three years, basically requiring nearly five years' worth of vehicle sales in only three years, and every vehicle sold would have to be an AFV," the department said.
The DOE's proposal to delay to the goal date for replacing 30 percent of U.S. motor fuel supplies with alternative energy sources was the result of an environmental group lawsuit.
A federal court required the department to come up with a revised replacement fuel goal. The department will take public comments on its proposal through November 3.
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