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Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing

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To: tom pope who wrote (48548)	9/21/2006 10:39:15 PM
From: tdl4138	Read Replies (2) of 118717

JOE... The value of their extensive land holdings is subject to extensive debate for a few reasons. First, a large portion of their desireable waterfront property has now been developed. The inventory they hold is literally not selling. The remainder is subject to everything from wetlands issues to literally having no access or development value. Most people also do not realize how problematic and extensive the entitlement process has become. Just because you have a tract of land you would like to develop and sell doesn't grant the owner immediate viability. The cost of developing raw land into subdividable lots is staggering. Many times the cost JOE paid for the land initially. The real gamble now is even if they develop some tracts...who will buy them? Lennar just walked away from 4000 acres near Orlando. WCI walked away from Sabal Bay in Naples. That was just over 2400 acres and had been in process/litigation for 7 years. More importantly, JOE's track record for return on equity has historically been quite low. It would appear that the primary benefactors have been management and not the stockholders. Paper mills didn't work...timber didn't work...Homebuilding didn't work...but Wallstreet just seems to need a new story to fall in love with. Now they're in love with this picture of vast new communities, with a new airport of course...in the middle of....nothing. Bear in mind the existing debt and capital expense needed for future development and the current valuation is ludicrous if their is no market to sell to. Just my thoughts.

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