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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 330.83

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To: Woody_Nickels who wrote (32687)	9/23/2006 10:30:51 AM
From: niek	Read Replies (2) of 95868

re: SAN JOSE, Calif. — The fourth quarter is projected to go in opposite directions for the individual semiconductor and chip-equipment industries. Simply put, semiconductors will be up and equipment is expected to fall in Q4. Overall semiconductor-equipment orders are projected to fall 10-to-15 percent in the fourth quarter, according to SG Cowen Securities Corp. (New York). SG Cowen spoke the same words after ASML released a mid quarter update in May. (the second quarter) ASML said orders would be at least 40% higher than in Q1. SG Cowen said the third quarter was projected to go in opposite direction. And again ASML surprised us with a mid quarter update in the beginning of September, saying the orderintake in Q3 should be greater than they first thought it would be at the presentation of the Q2 results in July. Instead of 63 lithomachines they expect at least 93 lithos as new orders in Q3. Now SG Cowen projects the overall semiconductor-equipment orders to fall 10-to-15 percent in the fourth quarter. I don't believe this. Why? First of all analysts don't do their homework. I don't know how their market channels work, but I'm sure something is wrong with their market channels. Quarter on quarter the are changing their views upwards. Remember they all called for a downturn in the first half of this year? As a reaction stocks declined between February and July. The downturn never happend. As a result stocks went up between July and the beginning of September. Then there should come a downturn in the second half of this year. It will not come, so stocks will rise after a couple of weeks, when the publication of the results begins half October. And now we will see a downturn in the first half of 2007? Who believes this nonsense? I don't. I believe that ASML will surprise us again in the beginning of December.....and when ASML sells more lithos, chipcompanies need a lot of equipment from AMAT, LRCX, NVLS, KLAC and many others.

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