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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 330.38

-4.4%

Feb 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: niek who wrote (32690)	9/23/2006 10:43:57 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95865

Hi Niek, Agreed these guys never hit the nail - unless it is by accident. End user demand drives all rational investment. As and IF oil declines and stays lower,we'll see a marginally better Christmas season. This will surprise all - who would have predicted lower oil 45-60 days ago?! This marginal uptick in enduser demand will meet modest Christmas inventory commitments and give us a clean channel going into 07. Let's face it the ramp up for Christmas had better be planned by now or its a miss. Wafer starts made in October get delivered in finished products by Novemeber and put under the tree in December. Most retail estimates I've seen say a Christmas that is up 5%. My bet is it will be cloer to 7-9%,and we see a clearing of the IC inventory channel. Here's hoping it gives us a nice launch into a stronger 07. JMHO Bob

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