onspiracy on gasoline ??? Virtually every newspaper in America is reporting on their front page that gas prices are plummeting,” said Ed Patru, a spokesman for the National Republican Campaign Committee. “That denies Democrats another issue that they’re trying to use to nationalize the election.”
Poll numbers show that high gas prices are receding as an issue. Back in May, 14 percent of those surveyed by the Pew Research Center said energy prices were the nation’s most important problem, ahead of terrorism and Iraq, up from 5 percent in March. This month, only 7 percent gave energy prices top billing. Gallup has had similar findings.
“It’s certainly good for the Republicans,” said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center. On the other hand, he added, prices have been high for a long time, “and they’ve taken a toll on people’s pocketbooks and people’s sense of well-being.”
Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, said “it’s common sense that if the price of gas continues to go down, it’s more favorable to the party in power.”
“There aren’t many other economic measures that are so readily available,” he said, adding, “you see those big numerals as you drive down the street.”
But recent Gallup numbers have also shown that the decrease in gas prices has not translated into general optimism about the economy. And there is no shortage of skeptics who doubt that only market forces are at work. A USA Today/Gallup poll conducted last weekend found that 42 percent of the roughly 1,000 adults surveyed nationwide said they believed the Bush administration had “deliberately manipulated the price of gasoline so that it would decrease before this fall’s elections.”
Tangible reasons cited for the dip in prices include the end of the Israeli-Hezbollah war, which had raised tensions across the Middle East. Also, forecasts of a severe hurricane season that could disrupt oil supplies from the Gulf of Mexico have not, so far, panned out.
Even with the summer’s increases, gas prices still have not topped their inflation-adjusted peaks from the early 1980’s. And the long gas lines of the 1973 oil embargo left more of a mark on the national psyche. But the recent high prices have lined the pockets of nations like Iran and helped undercut what’s left of the domestic auto industry, which built much of its business around inexpensive gasoline.
How long will prices keep falling? At least for a few more weeks, predicted Michael Burdette, the Energy Information Administration’s senior oil analyst, because crude prices are dropping and retail prices have not fully caught up.
“We probably have another 20 to 25 cents in retail declines we would expect to see over the next few weeks,” he said. “On the flip side, there are some people out there calling for retail prices way under $2 a gallon. We just don’t expect to see that.”
How about a forecast for Election Day?
“No,” he said, “I’m not going to go there.” |
