SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Mitch Blevins who wrote (901)9/26/1997 1:05:00 AM
From: Thomas C (Hijacked)   of 5676
 
It seems very likely that today, Friday, September 26 will mark the beginning of a series of rather large declines. Today is a crucial day which will either confirm or refute the past history mode of price decay. It is important that something happen today to avoid violating the historical trend.

No it is not guaranteed to happen, but the last two trading days had closing prices at the bottom of the trading ranges on DJIA. This is typically a pretty negative sign but especially in this scenario of overvaluation it is much worse.

The normalized chart that I have updated over the past week has changed course slightly. The '1997 final shelf' that I had indicated on the chart is no longer a shelf similar to 1987. (http://blevins.simplenet.com/si/doom/gloom)(Thanks for posting it Mitch!)

Instead, the 1997 normalized price line is modeling itself after the 1929 price plot. That is why I think a significant drop could occur today because the same happened in 1929 precisely after 3 relatively moderate and almost equal % losses in the Dow.

My theory as to why the 1997 price plot is modeling itself after 1929 instead of 1987 is because the interest rate/inflation and overall economic environment of 1929 is more common to today than 1987 was.

Should be an interesting day!

Tom
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News