Caught in the Osama obsession
By Ehsan Ahrari
The big story this weekend was whether Osama bin Laden is dead or alive. Three facts are worth noting. First, the intense global popularity of the topic. Second, the Pakistani, Saudi and Western intelligence services could not confirm the news of his death. And third, even though the story of bin Laden's death was leaked from French intelligence sources, they initially refused to confirm or deny it. Instead, the French government was annoyed
by the fact that the story was leaked and wanted to investigate this.
As much as the world has remained obsessed with bin Laden, an important chapter of George W Bush's so-called "war on terror" will not be closed until the end of the leader of al-Qaeda - a man who has become a legend in the streets of Muslim countries. In their view, he dared to challenge the sole superpower and got away with it. If he is still alive, one wonders whether bin Laden is wisecracking among his cohorts, "Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."
Call it the high efficiency of al-Qaeda to keep the news of bin Laden's life or death or his whereabouts highly shrouded in confusion, or the continued incompetence of the intelligence services, and even that of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in failing to find convincing proof on the subject.
Asia Times Online on September 14 reported that bin Laden recently traveled from the South Waziristan tribal area in Pakistan to somewhere in the eastern Afghan provinces of Kunar and Nooristan, or possibly Bajour, a small tribal agency in Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province (see Osama's on the move again).
The US Central Intelligence Agency knows for sure that bin Laden survived the Tora Bora campaign in Afghanistan in 2001 and was heard on the National Security Agency's listening channels apologizing to his cohorts for the loss of lives. After that, he seems to have disappeared into thin air. There have been audio tapes of his statements, but there remained ample uncertainty as to when those statements were made.
The IntelCenter - a Washington-based entity that monitors terrorism communications - was certain on June 29 that bin Laden was alive. In an audio tape, the voice believed to be that of bin Laden eulogized the death of Musab al-Zarqawi, who had been killed as a result of US air strikes in Iraq that month.
There have been reports that bin Laden has had health problems with his kidneys and was known to have been dependent at some time on a dialysis machine.
However, if that report was true, being on the run and living in the primitive conditions of the Waziristan tribal areas in Pakistan near the Afghan border, or even in Pakistan-administered Kashmir - as several reports surmise about his hideouts - in all likelihood could have killed him.
Those in the business of speculating on the subject have also issued regular caveats to make themselves believable by pointing out that bin Laden has the professional services of Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, his deputy in al-Qaeda and a competent surgeon. But having a surgeon at one's disposal may not mean very much if he cannot have access to modern medical equipment or medicines.
Now the reports are that bin Laden died of typhoid. The source was the Direction Generale des Services Exterieurs (DGSE - French intelligence service), which apparently relied on Saudi sources, which in turn might have relied on Pakistani sources.
According to that report, the chief of al-Qaeda became "a victim of typhoid in Pakistan on August 23". The lack of medical facilities was the reason cited. However, no French official was willing to confirm the report. About the only known aspect of the report is the French regional newspaper L'Est Republicain, which cited a "confidential document" from the DGSE, and that the French government was about to investigate the source of the leak.
The Saudi sources were reportedly confident of the reliability of their information, but even they could not say where bin Laden was buried, or produce witnesses who either saw his body or were present during funeral prayers. Finally, the Saudi sources issued a statement on Sunday that he was not dead.
When one looks at the believability factor of all the intelligence agencies involved in speculating on the subject, off the record, Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) has the best record. One such source has claimed that al-Qaeda "had already undergone a leadership transition which has seen Ayman al-Zawahiri, the group's second-highest-ranking leader, emerge as the key decision-maker". Still, no one is willing to identify himself as the source of that statement.
However, one has to keep in mind that the ISI has a profound agenda of its own. Some of its high-level functionaries (not necessarily highest-level officials) have religious sympathies toward bin Laden. Then there are elements in the Pakistani government - whose identities remain a mystery - who might not want the truth to be out, for political reasons.
US intelligence sources in Washington and Afghanistan - considering that their credibility worldwide has been shattered in the aftermath of the scandalous abuse of intelligence by the Bush administration before invading Iraq - were taking the prudent option of expressing high skepticism regarding bin Laden's death. The most amazing aspect of this whole episode is that Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf was in Washington making a joint appearance with Bush, yet no one bothered to ask him during a press conference about the accuracy of the reports of bin Laden's death.
Why is it that a number of intelligence agencies are speculating about bin Laden's death? First, he remains a very high source of intrigue and interest to the world at large. Second, a number of countries, including the US, have high stakes attached to the subject, for different reasons.
For the United States, his death would bring to a close a major chapter for Bush's "war on terror". Any reader of Bob Woodward's two books on the state of affairs since September 11, 2001, or that of James Risen, or Ron Suskind, knows too well how obsessive Bush is about bringing in bin Laden "dead or alive", preferably dead. Considering that he badly needs a victory of some kind to improve the chances of re-election of Republican legislators in the House of Representatives and the Senate in the mid-term election in November, Bush could use bin Laden's death - even if it is not the result of US military operations - to win congressional seats.
Third, bin Laden's death would be a great relief to the Saudi government, whose credibility within its own borders has deteriorated since September 11. Even though King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz is a more effective leader than his late half-brother Fahd, no one really knows how popular bin Laden remains in the kingdom. As long as he is alive, there is a chance that al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia could score a major operational victory and enhance the level of instability inside the country. Even if he has died, bin Laden's legacy would serve as an important source of political activism for the pro-al-Qaeda elements to continue their struggle to bring an end to the Saudi dynasty.
Fourth, Musharraf is in great need of some sort of victory in Bush's "war on terror" to score points with the US. As hard as he has been trying to appease Washington, there is no end to US demands. The US Congress has been especially vocal in airing its skepticism that Musharraf is not doing enough to bring an end to al-Qaeda.
The inability of the US government to do something - such as the eradication of the Taliban or al-Qaeda or bringing an end to the Iraqi insurgency - is conveniently explained away as an unswerving outcome of the "unwillingness" of America's "allies" in those countries to "do enough". It does not really matter that the alleged unwillingness is really a reflection of the Americans' inability.
That is how the political games of "success and failure" are played in Washington. Legislators - especially those belonging to the Republican Party - are in dire need of scoring some sort of victory related to the "war on terror", which is going badly for them and for Bush. However, since Bush can no longer run for office, legislators have to worry only about saving themselves from the wrath of the American public for supporting a "war" without end - a concept that the public is increasingly depicting as a political ploy of the Republicans (and Bush) to win elections.
The global Islamist movement may get something of a jolt if bin Laden is indeed dead. But there is not likely to be a long-term negative effect on the activities of jihadis, the chief strength of whom is the ability to remain a self-starting phenomenon in different regions.
Most important, the fate of the Bush administration's "war on terror" lies in Afghanistan and Iraq. Islamist forces increasingly envisage President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki of Iraq as US "puppets" who should be ousted, and the systems over which they preside smashed.
What is even worse is that - considering the rising spirals of turmoil, violence and bloodshed - an increasing number of Afghans and Iraqis are beginning to share that perception. That is the most dangerous growing development. Bin Laden is no longer the chief threat to the "war on terror", either dead or alive.
Ehsan Ahrari is the CEO of Strategic Paradigms, an Alexandria, Virginia-based defense consultancy. He can be reached at eahrari@cox.net or stratparadigms@yahoo.com. His columns appear regularly in Asia Times Online. His website: www.ehsanahrari.com. |
