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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: quehubo who wrote (71936)9/25/2006 11:27:04 PM
From: buckbldr  Read Replies (2) of 206272
 
Que, would you and those others you are holding forth with regarding NG outlooks please take a look at lehiguy post # 71829 this a.m. He referenced Robry825's post which addressed the significant divergences between Robry's and the DOE injection reports of the last two weeks casting some doubt about the validity of the DOE greater injections.

You seem to accept those greater injections as a matter of fact in your expressions of the probable surplus inventories this fall. You wrote:

>>>>... My concern with the markets now is 3/4 with the poor injections in September which are strong even considering the cooler weather.<<<<

Robry addresses those strong injections and the divergences in that post and provides the following conclusion:

(snip)
>>>>In the last 2 or 3 weeks, the storage and capacity models have had difficulty as well, with the 2005 model underestimating the EIA by 23 and 18 BCF in its last two estimates, and the Gas Storage Capacity model adding 53 BCF (because the last two EIA reports matched neither the gas-flows nor the proportional reduction of capacity posted by the 40% + of storage represented by operators whose public-postings are included in the Gas Storage Catacity model).

For these reasons, use of the evaluation models should be done with caution, until these problems can be worked out. And where the models are used, this skew (model bias) should be kept in mind.

-Robry825<<<<

A full read of the rest of his post as provided by lehiguy in post #71825 seems to lend credence to his opinion as expressed above. Are we actually seeing a greater rate of injection this fall as you seem to believe, and if not, will these discrepancies make a hell of a lot of difference in the ending storage this fall? I thoroughly appreciate your posts as well as those with somewhat differing viewpoints. And I also highly value Robry's posts and reports on the CWEI IV thread, as I surmise you do also.

Buck
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