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Biotech / Medical : MGI Pharma MOGN New patents, anti cancer
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From: tom pope9/26/2006 1:36:46 PM
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ML - Buy

Dacogen Strong; Aquavan Data Positive; Raising Est.
MGI Pharma raised guidance for Dacogen to treat MDS, confirmed that 3Q Aloxi
sales will achieve at least $70 MM, reported positive phase III data for Aquavan
as a sedative during colonscopy, and lowered ‘07 operating expenses. As a
result, we raised our ’06 and ’07 EPS estimates and reiterate our BUY rating.
Dacogen Sales Stronger Than Expected:
We are raising our 2006 Dacogen sales estimate to $33.4 MM from $26.5 MM
due to a stronger than expected launch of the drug in myelodysplastic syndrome.
MGI Confirms 3Q Aloxi Sales of $70 MM:
MGI confirmed that 3Q Aloxi sales should reach at least $70 MM. The company
expects Aloxi sales of at least $200 MM in the first 9 months of ‘06. With just 1
week left in 3Q, we estimate that 3Q Aloxi sales should achieve at least $70 MM
based on $130 MM in 1H06.
Positive Phase III Aquavan Data:
MGI reported positive phase III data for Aquavan as a sedative during colonscopy.
The data suggested that Aquavan 6.5 mg achieved the primary endpoint of
sedation success and is superior to midazolam, which is std. of care.
Lower Than Expected ’07 Operating Expenses:
MGI expects ’07 operating expenses to be lower than those in ’06 due to lower
development program costs associated with Aquavan. Thus, we lowered our ’07
R&D expenses to $88 MM from $96 MM.
Raising EPS Estimates:
As a result of higher ’06 Dacogen sales and lower ’07 operating expenses, we are
raising our 2006 EPS estimate to a loss of $0.11 from a loss of $0.16 and raising
our 2007 EPS projection to $0.22 from $0.17.
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