i haven't really followed up on his short reco's, but his long reco's have been very helpful to me. in particular, Grant's was the first place i heard about peak oil, back in early 2003 when he reviewed Deffeyes' first book on the subject. i became an energy clown after that and have tripled my PF after taxes and living expenses, and while normally investing no more than 50% in equities. even though Grant isn't really an energy bull (imo), it was the right piece of information at the right time for me.
mainly i read Grant for his "musings" but i will pick up the odd long here and there and they have generally worked out well. the ag plays he mentions i owned some years ago and they did well, but it's been a few years.
there was an offshoot from Grant's back around 2001 called Grant's Investor. it was headed by Eric Fry (of Agora fame). later they changed their name to Apogee Research. the idea was to be more hands-on than Grant's, with specific stocks that they had recommended entry levels for. also, they did some real-time updates. the best ever was when they said to buy FCX the day after the Bali bombing. FCX had fallen temporarily below $10. it was over $70 within the past year. they had some great picks back in 2001/2002--VLO, Gazprom, 7-Eleven, FCX, etc. all at fractions of today's prices. almost none of their shorts worked out, though (the entire market was bottoming). they had a great bearish analysis of GM that was ahead of its time, but the stock doubled after they reco'd it as a short. that was one thing that turned me off shorting -g-.
unfortunately, Apogee folded after a couple years. i think this is really common--if somebody does good analysis, they soon realize they can be making a lot more money running a hedge fund or creating some kind of newsletter network like i guess Agora is (i haven't followed them for a few years), or else selling their research to institutional investors for fees that start at 100K/yr per subscriber.
there are not many publications positioned in Grant's niche--normally, if they are aimed at retail investors, they are mass-produced, cost no more than $350 a year (normally under $250), and have huge numbers of subscribers. or they go ultra-high-end, costing too much for even wealthy individual investors. |
