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China: Hu Speaks Loudly with Anti-Corruption Moves
Summary
On Sept. 24, the Chinese government sacked Chen Liangyu, Shanghai's Communist Party secretary and a Politburo member. For the past couple of months, Chinese President Hu Jintao has employed the "speak softly and carry a big stick" adage. Chen's dismissal indicates Hu is now cracking down, loudly.
Analysis
Chinese President Hu Jintao came into office promising to promote a "harmonious society." As part of this vision, he wants to recentralize the government, reining in corrupt local officials. He started slowly, following the "speak softly and carry a big stick" adage and using the media as an outlet to gently threaten Chinese officials who were lining their pockets through corruption. Then, Beijing announced that Chen Liangyu, Shanghai's Communist Party secretary and a Politburo member, was dismissed Sept. 24. Immediately after the announcement, Beijing said Sept. 26 it had dispatched inspectors to investigate corruption throughout the country. These teams were operating before Chen's ouster, but since the Shanghai official was dismissed, the announcement and renewed campaign will carry more weight.
With Chen's dismissal, Hu is making a statement to other officials throughout the country: If he can take down one of former President Jiang Zemin's proteges in one of China's more prosperous cities, no one is safe. Hu is still carrying a big stick, but he is no longer speaking softly.
Hu's strategy has many implications. First, for Hu to maintain his legitimacy -- and therefore the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) -- he must follow through with his promise of creating a more "harmonious society," which entails reining in corruption and closing the wealth gap. The discontent of the Chinese masses has the potential to take down the CCP, which was built on the backs of rural peasants. Hu needs to keep his promises to quell the growing discontent.
Second, the publicity surrounding Chen's purge suggests Hu is encountering resistance within the party to his new policies, which threaten to cut off extra-budgetary funds to many local officials and state-owned companies. He had to make a very public show of force to illustrate his power, but this exhibition might actually exemplify weakness. Usually, officials who threaten the party are forced into early retirement, or need to bow out of politics because of a sudden "illness" (Vice Premier Huang Ju -- known for supporting Jiang's policies -- took a leave of absence earlier this year because of an illness that was never explained). This allows the leaders to save face -- a very important concept in China -- and avoids corruption implications aimed directly at the party. Hu's tactic is different, suggesting that he had to crack down in the face of growing pressure from within the CCP.
Third, Hu is preparing to redistribute power in 2007 at the 17th Party Congress. Putting his people in important positions will make it easier to elevate them at the Party Congress. In the meantime, he hopes to place his people throughout China to consolidate his power and realize his vision. He is looking to purge officials who pledge allegiance to Jiang and, more important, the former leader's policies of rapid economic growth, which differ radically from Hu's. Jiang focused on the economic engines of the coast, namely Shanghai. Hu is not at odds with Jiang per se, but Jiang's core economic and social policies directly contradict Hu's. The rich are getting richer in places such as Shanghai, the poor are getting poorer in the inland provinces and Hu wants to reverse the trend. To do so he must not only take down Jiang's loyalists, but also discredit policies that focus only on growth for growth's sake.
Although part of Hu's efforts will de-personalize politics at the local levels -- politics in many of these places is all about guanxi, or who you know -- he is recreating this system at the center. People and companies that conform to his vision of a "harmonious society" by moving production and facilities inland will receive favorable treatment, as will companies that are not affiliated with corrupt local officials. A major shake-up is under way so that both domestic and foreign individuals and businesses should expect to readjust their personal ties.
Hu is now wielding a big stick. He will continue to crack the heads of his opponents and praise his supporters until he has accomplished his mission of centralizing politics, or until he hits someone too hard -- someone who can hit back. |
