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Biotech / Medical : NKTR Drug delivery Company
NKTR 56.44+4.6%2:07 PM EST
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (148)9/29/2006 1:18:30 AM
From: tuck  Read Replies (2) of 507
 
>>Is the analyst distinguishing between introduction and rollout?<<

I think he is making that distinction, as many of us have been forced to make. What I hadn't seen was a date of February for the big show. Maybe that's when the doctors are sufficiently educated that they can be swarmed with patients through a DTC campaign as only Pfizer can do. If that's the full roll out date, then the inventory building process for that time frame will be taking place in the fourth quarter, and that's when Nektar starts to book some revenue.

I failed to sell calls against my shares before the "launch" and so suffered the price decline, but I kept selling more puts. So this bounce makes up for most of that. I closed that sold put position today because I suspect a pullback is in the offing, but having lathered and rinsed, I intend to repeat.

I also think that competitors might not be as close as some analysts think. Remember Pfizer saying this was the most complex NDA they had ever dealt with? Remember the delays to this point? Do NKTR bears really think MNKD, and Lilly/Alkermes are going to get through the final regulatory process without a stumble (to say nothing of ARDM/NVO, so far behind that their only recourse now is a desperate lawsuit -- I wonder if they intend to sue everyone who launches in the pulmonary insulin space)? I doubt it. Is Kos even trying anymore?

Cheers, Tuck
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